After BTC touched 87,000+ USD and pulled back last night, today some people are treating 84,800 as “a sufficient drop,” while others think that if the attempt to push higher failed, the price should continue falling. The easiest thing to misread is this: a sudden spike in intraday trading volume doesn’t necessarily mean someone is catching the downside.
As of 10:00 Beijing time on October 4, Binance spot BTC/USDT’s 09:00 hourly candle closed at $84,802.59, below the $85,012.01 opening at 02:00. The 07:00 hour saw about 919 BTC traded—by far the busiest of the past few hours—but the close slid from $84,776.02 down to $84,753.56. Over the next two hours combined, roughly 576 BTC changed hands, and the price only rebounded slightly. After the flurry, the closing price still hadn’t returned to the 02:00 opening level.
From 10:00 to 14:00, the short-term bias is slightly bearish. The reasons are the reduced rebound volume and the fact that the price still hasn’t reclaimed the early-morning drop. If, before 14:00, a completed 1-hour candle closes at $85,037.63, then this judgment will no longer hold. That $85,037.63 is the high of the 02:00 hour—use it only as a checkpoint for this particular stretch of price action; don’t use last night’s needle tip to decide today’s close.
As of 10:00 Beijing time on October 4, Binance spot BTC/USDT’s 09:00 hourly candle closed at $84,802.59, below the $85,012.01 opening at 02:00. The 07:00 hour saw about 919 BTC traded—by far the busiest of the past few hours—but the close slid from $84,776.02 down to $84,753.56. Over the next two hours combined, roughly 576 BTC changed hands, and the price only rebounded slightly. After the flurry, the closing price still hadn’t returned to the 02:00 opening level.
From 10:00 to 14:00, the short-term bias is slightly bearish. The reasons are the reduced rebound volume and the fact that the price still hasn’t reclaimed the early-morning drop. If, before 14:00, a completed 1-hour candle closes at $85,037.63, then this judgment will no longer hold. That $85,037.63 is the high of the 02:00 hour—use it only as a checkpoint for this particular stretch of price action; don’t use last night’s needle tip to decide today’s close.