October 2: the September non-farm employment data came out—29,000 versus an expected 90,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, wage growth slowed, the July figure was revised down by 10,000 (a negative value), and August was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000.
This is extremely weak jobs data. Jefferies’ chief economist Simons said: "For the Fed, this number should be the last nail that shuts the lid on the October rate-hike coffin."
The probability of a rate hike at the October FOMC crashed from 70% to 17%.
BTC reaction: it surged from 86,000 to 87,229, testing the pressure zone around the Q3 high of 87,300—then pulled back to 84,668, falling 1.6% that day.
This is definitely worth breaking down.
Extremely weak non-farm + removal of rate-hike expectations → BTC briefly went up → then it fell back.
This shows that the 87,300 resistance wall can’t be broken through by macro news alone—every time price reaches this level, there are massive sell orders. That suggests many position holders are waiting to distribute (sell) at this point, and the buying pressure brought by macro positives isn’t enough to absorb that batch of sell orders.
But on the other hand, it’s also worth noting: with non-farm extremely weak and clear signals of an economic slowdown, BTC only fell as low as 83,888—without breaking the support near 83,000 from last week. BlackRock’s IBIT bought $195.6 million in a single day, and Fidelity bought $29.28 million the same day. Institutions didn’t retreat because of the weak employment data—because their view is: "weak jobs = rate hikes not coming = macro pressure easing = holding BTC."
Now the market structure is very clear: 83,000–84,000 below is institutional support, while 87,300–87,500 above is the heavy profit-taking zone. This resistance wall can’t be broken by macro data; it only gets eaten up if ETFs maintain continuous large net inflows.
Key milestones in October: October 14 CPI (the next inflation data), and October 27–29 the XRP Swell conference + the FOMC meeting.
If the October 14 CPI continues to come in soft, only then will this 87,300 wall truly have a chance to be broken, and Citi’s 113,000 target won’t just be a paper target.
Do you think BTC can break 87,300 within October this time? Share your view.
$BTC
This is extremely weak jobs data. Jefferies’ chief economist Simons said: "For the Fed, this number should be the last nail that shuts the lid on the October rate-hike coffin."
The probability of a rate hike at the October FOMC crashed from 70% to 17%.
BTC reaction: it surged from 86,000 to 87,229, testing the pressure zone around the Q3 high of 87,300—then pulled back to 84,668, falling 1.6% that day.
This is definitely worth breaking down.
Extremely weak non-farm + removal of rate-hike expectations → BTC briefly went up → then it fell back.
This shows that the 87,300 resistance wall can’t be broken through by macro news alone—every time price reaches this level, there are massive sell orders. That suggests many position holders are waiting to distribute (sell) at this point, and the buying pressure brought by macro positives isn’t enough to absorb that batch of sell orders.
But on the other hand, it’s also worth noting: with non-farm extremely weak and clear signals of an economic slowdown, BTC only fell as low as 83,888—without breaking the support near 83,000 from last week. BlackRock’s IBIT bought $195.6 million in a single day, and Fidelity bought $29.28 million the same day. Institutions didn’t retreat because of the weak employment data—because their view is: "weak jobs = rate hikes not coming = macro pressure easing = holding BTC."
Now the market structure is very clear: 83,000–84,000 below is institutional support, while 87,300–87,500 above is the heavy profit-taking zone. This resistance wall can’t be broken by macro data; it only gets eaten up if ETFs maintain continuous large net inflows.
Key milestones in October: October 14 CPI (the next inflation data), and October 27–29 the XRP Swell conference + the FOMC meeting.
If the October 14 CPI continues to come in soft, only then will this 87,300 wall truly have a chance to be broken, and Citi’s 113,000 target won’t just be a paper target.
Do you think BTC can break 87,300 within October this time? Share your view.
$BTC
