Good news was served right on a platter: BTC surged to 872,000 again, only to be pushed back to 840,000—this time even the traders in the prediction markets aren’t pretending anymore. The probability of reaching above 100,000 was slashed from 85% to 13%.
What happened:
1. On Friday, the U.S. September non-farm payrolls were only 29,000, far below expectations of 84,000. BTC briefly jumped to $87,229, then gave back the gains, sliding to around $84,575 (CoinGecko, Oct 3)
2. Kalshi prediction market: October peak contract—Above 100k: 13% (-74pp), above 92.5k: 46% (-67pp), above 90k: 63%, above 87.5k: 86%. The only upward adjustment is above 95k: +24pp to 28%
3. CoinGlass liquidation heatmap: The dense zones are below 83,500 and 82,600–82,000. Above it there are clusters at 85,100 / 86,000–86,400 / 87,700—walls everywhere both up and down
4. Macro: Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said more time is needed to observe before raising rates, while Williams suggested it could wait until December. From Sep 28 to Oct 2, spot BTC ETF net inflows were $82.9 million, a sharp cool-down from the prior week’s $239 million
How to interpret this: The contrarian move here is that the stronger the bullish news, the harder the price pushes—yet the prediction markets cut positions even more aggressively. They’re trimming extremely optimistic bets, not expressing a bearish view. With still 86% probability above 87.5k, traders are simply revising the upside cap down from 100k to around 95k. The most uncomfortable part is the leverage: both directions are liquidation-dense zones, and the longer it chops sideways, the higher the chance it gets swept back and forth. Spot holders don’t need to panic—the key is whether ETF funds flow back in next week, and the CPI on Oct 14.
Risk warning: If it breaks below 82,000, the weakness signal is confirmed (Altcoin Sherpa notes). Only once it stands above 87,500 will upside room open.
Data as of: 2026-10-04 00:55 UTC
Source: Analytics Insight; Octagon Research (Kalshi data); Morningstar/WSJ
For information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.
How high do you think BTC’s October high can reach?
I’ll keep tracking this kind of data—follow me so you won’t get lost
$BTC #Can Bitcoin break through 100,000 in October?
What happened:
1. On Friday, the U.S. September non-farm payrolls were only 29,000, far below expectations of 84,000. BTC briefly jumped to $87,229, then gave back the gains, sliding to around $84,575 (CoinGecko, Oct 3)
2. Kalshi prediction market: October peak contract—Above 100k: 13% (-74pp), above 92.5k: 46% (-67pp), above 90k: 63%, above 87.5k: 86%. The only upward adjustment is above 95k: +24pp to 28%
3. CoinGlass liquidation heatmap: The dense zones are below 83,500 and 82,600–82,000. Above it there are clusters at 85,100 / 86,000–86,400 / 87,700—walls everywhere both up and down
4. Macro: Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said more time is needed to observe before raising rates, while Williams suggested it could wait until December. From Sep 28 to Oct 2, spot BTC ETF net inflows were $82.9 million, a sharp cool-down from the prior week’s $239 million
How to interpret this: The contrarian move here is that the stronger the bullish news, the harder the price pushes—yet the prediction markets cut positions even more aggressively. They’re trimming extremely optimistic bets, not expressing a bearish view. With still 86% probability above 87.5k, traders are simply revising the upside cap down from 100k to around 95k. The most uncomfortable part is the leverage: both directions are liquidation-dense zones, and the longer it chops sideways, the higher the chance it gets swept back and forth. Spot holders don’t need to panic—the key is whether ETF funds flow back in next week, and the CPI on Oct 14.
Risk warning: If it breaks below 82,000, the weakness signal is confirmed (Altcoin Sherpa notes). Only once it stands above 87,500 will upside room open.
Data as of: 2026-10-04 00:55 UTC
Source: Analytics Insight; Octagon Research (Kalshi data); Morningstar/WSJ
For information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.
How high do you think BTC’s October high can reach?
I’ll keep tracking this kind of data—follow me so you won’t get lost
$BTC #Can Bitcoin break through 100,000 in October?
