The fundamentals are sprinting ahead, but the order book funds are cautiously pulling back. In the past 30 days, Hyperliquid’s perpetual contract revenue has surged to a peak of about $54 million—up nearly 60% quarter-over-quarter—maintaining its #1 spot among trading-related protocols. However, on the chart, $HYPE has not kept pace with this surge in “blood-forming” ability; instead, it has slid from around $91.7 at the start of the week down to about $88.
The root of the split on the funding side lies in the potential dilution of the circulating supply. On October 1, the team filed to unfreeze 3.75 million tokens, worth about $340 million. In the face of a massive potential sell-pressure overhang, buyers’ willingness to absorb has been clearly suppressed. Market liquidity has chosen to first digest the expected risk of token supply.
At present, spot prices are still locked in a standoff within the existing range of $85 to $95. The deciding factor for the near-term outlook is whether buy-side demand driven by protocol cash flows can absorb the liquidity shock from the unfreezing. If the $85 support line fails, it would suggest that the heavy pressure from token supply outweighs the growth in fundamentals. If it can bottom out and stabilize here, valuations may be able to re-anchor to the protocol’s impressive revenue once again.
The root of the split on the funding side lies in the potential dilution of the circulating supply. On October 1, the team filed to unfreeze 3.75 million tokens, worth about $340 million. In the face of a massive potential sell-pressure overhang, buyers’ willingness to absorb has been clearly suppressed. Market liquidity has chosen to first digest the expected risk of token supply.
At present, spot prices are still locked in a standoff within the existing range of $85 to $95. The deciding factor for the near-term outlook is whether buy-side demand driven by protocol cash flows can absorb the liquidity shock from the unfreezing. If the $85 support line fails, it would suggest that the heavy pressure from token supply outweighs the growth in fundamentals. If it can bottom out and stabilize here, valuations may be able to re-anchor to the protocol’s impressive revenue once again.