A penny hasn’t been lost—everything was recovered, but $NEAR didn’t rise even a cent: what’s been suppressing it was never hackers
On October 1st, NEAR Intents was hacked, losing $3.8 million. NEAR dropped 7% in an hour.
The next plot unfolded like a movie. Early the following day, the负责人 publicly called out the hacker: “We already know who you are,” giving them 48 hours. Within less than a day, the hacker returned all the money, and even left a line on-chain: “We’ve repaid everything—we were wrong.”
In theory, once the money is back, the price should rebound too.
But the moment the recovery news broke, NEAR actually fell again within a few hours to 4.6.
📋 Last time I said to watch three things—now all the answers are in
· Was compensation paid? No need—every cent was recovered ✅
· Did ETF capital run out? No. Net inflows for 3 straight days, totaling about $57 million ✅
· Did Intents trading volume drop? Down by about 30%, but deposits/withdrawals were paused for half a day—understandable.
Two pieces of good news, yet the price hasn’t moved at all. So what’s really keeping NEAR down?
🔍 Turns out it’s running the old ETF playbook
Comparing NEAR’s post-ETF listing move with how SOL and XRP looked back then, on day 4 after listing:
SOL -4.0%, XRP -6.8%, NEAR -4.1%.
It’s almost exactly the same. The hack just happened to collide with that timing.
In plain terms: an ETF listing is like a store opening with ribbon-cutting. Before the ceremony, everyone lines up to enter (NEAR had already doubled before listing). After the ribbon is cut, people disperse. Whether the thief came or not, people still scatter.
Binance data also matches: the big players’ long/short position ratio on the day the ETF launched fell from 3.2 to 2.2—big holders are quietly reducing longs.
📅 The next two days are the most critical
Back then, SOL and XRP fell the hardest on days 6 and 7 after listing: SOL dropped 20% in a week, XRP dropped 14% (and the overall market was also falling at the time).
NEAR’s days 6 and 7 are October 5th and 6th.
Also, Bitwise—the issuer of the ETF—has already publicly urged people to buy on the pullback. Of course, the people issuing the ETF want you to buy. What truly matters is whether the ETF’s daily net inflow can turn into outflows.
My take: Intents handled this incident beautifully. The hack episode is already over. But what $NEAR is fighting for now isn’t safety—it’s whether it can break out of the “people disperse after the ribbon-cutting” script. If it holds up on October 5th and 6th, then it’s truly different from SOL and XRP.
Do you think NEAR can break out of this script? Let’s chat in the comments below👇
On October 1st, NEAR Intents was hacked, losing $3.8 million. NEAR dropped 7% in an hour.
The next plot unfolded like a movie. Early the following day, the负责人 publicly called out the hacker: “We already know who you are,” giving them 48 hours. Within less than a day, the hacker returned all the money, and even left a line on-chain: “We’ve repaid everything—we were wrong.”
In theory, once the money is back, the price should rebound too.
But the moment the recovery news broke, NEAR actually fell again within a few hours to 4.6.
📋 Last time I said to watch three things—now all the answers are in
· Was compensation paid? No need—every cent was recovered ✅
· Did ETF capital run out? No. Net inflows for 3 straight days, totaling about $57 million ✅
· Did Intents trading volume drop? Down by about 30%, but deposits/withdrawals were paused for half a day—understandable.
Two pieces of good news, yet the price hasn’t moved at all. So what’s really keeping NEAR down?
🔍 Turns out it’s running the old ETF playbook
Comparing NEAR’s post-ETF listing move with how SOL and XRP looked back then, on day 4 after listing:
SOL -4.0%, XRP -6.8%, NEAR -4.1%.
It’s almost exactly the same. The hack just happened to collide with that timing.
In plain terms: an ETF listing is like a store opening with ribbon-cutting. Before the ceremony, everyone lines up to enter (NEAR had already doubled before listing). After the ribbon is cut, people disperse. Whether the thief came or not, people still scatter.
Binance data also matches: the big players’ long/short position ratio on the day the ETF launched fell from 3.2 to 2.2—big holders are quietly reducing longs.
📅 The next two days are the most critical
Back then, SOL and XRP fell the hardest on days 6 and 7 after listing: SOL dropped 20% in a week, XRP dropped 14% (and the overall market was also falling at the time).
NEAR’s days 6 and 7 are October 5th and 6th.
Also, Bitwise—the issuer of the ETF—has already publicly urged people to buy on the pullback. Of course, the people issuing the ETF want you to buy. What truly matters is whether the ETF’s daily net inflow can turn into outflows.
My take: Intents handled this incident beautifully. The hack episode is already over. But what $NEAR is fighting for now isn’t safety—it’s whether it can break out of the “people disperse after the ribbon-cutting” script. If it holds up on October 5th and 6th, then it’s truly different from SOL and XRP.
Do you think NEAR can break out of this script? Let’s chat in the comments below👇
