Uptober day two of the run-up—the script flips immediately.
On October 1, the BTC spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $103 million, and the “October rally” start looked smooth.
Then on October 2 (ET), the data came out: net outflow for the entire day was about $91.76 million.
By fund, it gets even more interesting:
1) Fidelity FBTC: net inflow of $21.08 million—the only one that was strongly positive
2) ARK 21Shares ARKB: net outflow of $60.28 million
3) Grayscale GBTC: net outflow of $27.31 million
Red one day, then cold the next—are institutional flows really just a “one-day trip”?
What’s abnormal is the coin price: BTC is still hovering around $84.8k. It’s been grinding back and forth along the lower edge of the $85k level and hasn’t fallen in step with the ETF outflows.
The ETH side is also seeing outflows. On October 1, net outflow was about $55.4 million. The narrative of institutional BTC/ETH divergence is still continuing.
My take: this looks more like institutions rebalancing, while spot buyers are picking up the slack. ETF flows have been switching direction recently—outflow on Sep 30 ($149 million) → inflow on Oct 1 ($103 million) → then outflow again on Oct 2 ($91.76 million). That suggests even big money doesn’t have a unified view on short-term direction. On the other hand, price staying put around $85k is more “honest”—after all, the sell-wall pressure at $85k in late September was eaten up by spot buying, and on Oct 2 it even triggered the $122 million liquidation of short orders. Price has been more decisive than the “flip-flopping” in fund flows.
For the short term, watch two levels:
· Above 87,000–87,300: the shorts’ cluster area in the liquidation heat map; longs need to take this zone first to accelerate
· Below 85,000: the sell-wall that was just absorbed—turned from pressure to support; only a breakdown would confirm weakness
So don’t just look at whether the ETF was green or red for a day. One day of inflows/outflows doesn’t tell you the trend—only continuous flows matter. The real test in the coming weeks is whether funds can return to a pace of inflows of several hundred million dollars per day—that’s the “real support for confirming an uptrend” that Glassnode talks about.
I’ll keep tracking this kind of fund data—follow me so you don’t get lost.
What do you think? With ETF “one-day-trip” style back-and-forth, would you treat it as a signal for entries and exits?
Data as of: 2026-10-03 UTC (Oct 2 ET ETF fund flows)
Source: ChainCatcher (SoSoValue data); MiTrade (SoSoValue data)
For information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC $ETH
#Uptober
On October 1, the BTC spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $103 million, and the “October rally” start looked smooth.
Then on October 2 (ET), the data came out: net outflow for the entire day was about $91.76 million.
By fund, it gets even more interesting:
1) Fidelity FBTC: net inflow of $21.08 million—the only one that was strongly positive
2) ARK 21Shares ARKB: net outflow of $60.28 million
3) Grayscale GBTC: net outflow of $27.31 million
Red one day, then cold the next—are institutional flows really just a “one-day trip”?
What’s abnormal is the coin price: BTC is still hovering around $84.8k. It’s been grinding back and forth along the lower edge of the $85k level and hasn’t fallen in step with the ETF outflows.
The ETH side is also seeing outflows. On October 1, net outflow was about $55.4 million. The narrative of institutional BTC/ETH divergence is still continuing.
My take: this looks more like institutions rebalancing, while spot buyers are picking up the slack. ETF flows have been switching direction recently—outflow on Sep 30 ($149 million) → inflow on Oct 1 ($103 million) → then outflow again on Oct 2 ($91.76 million). That suggests even big money doesn’t have a unified view on short-term direction. On the other hand, price staying put around $85k is more “honest”—after all, the sell-wall pressure at $85k in late September was eaten up by spot buying, and on Oct 2 it even triggered the $122 million liquidation of short orders. Price has been more decisive than the “flip-flopping” in fund flows.
For the short term, watch two levels:
· Above 87,000–87,300: the shorts’ cluster area in the liquidation heat map; longs need to take this zone first to accelerate
· Below 85,000: the sell-wall that was just absorbed—turned from pressure to support; only a breakdown would confirm weakness
So don’t just look at whether the ETF was green or red for a day. One day of inflows/outflows doesn’t tell you the trend—only continuous flows matter. The real test in the coming weeks is whether funds can return to a pace of inflows of several hundred million dollars per day—that’s the “real support for confirming an uptrend” that Glassnode talks about.
I’ll keep tracking this kind of fund data—follow me so you don’t get lost.
What do you think? With ETF “one-day-trip” style back-and-forth, would you treat it as a signal for entries and exits?
Data as of: 2026-10-03 UTC (Oct 2 ET ETF fund flows)
Source: ChainCatcher (SoSoValue data); MiTrade (SoSoValue data)
For information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC $ETH
#Uptober
