U.S.-China Tariffs Cut by About $30 Billion Each: Moving From “Statements” to “Implementation”
Substantive progress has been made in economic and trade talks between the U.S. and China. The two sides are no longer confined to a verbal consensus of “willingness to reduce tariffs.” They have reached agreement on reciprocal tariff-reduction lists for about $30 billion worth of each side’s imported goods: more than 90% of the relevant items’ tariffs will be rolled back to the MFN rate level. After their respective domestic legal procedures are completed, the reductions will be implemented simultaneously.
The “gold content” of the lists is high. On the U.S. side, the 77 items related to China’s exports include toys, household appliances, baby products, kitchen and bathroom appliances, and holiday gifts—mostly people-focused consumer categories frequently purchased by consumers in the U.S. mainland. On the China side, the 1,619 items related to imports from the U.S. include agricultural products, personal care items, medical devices, and coal, directly targeting real needs on the domestic consumption, healthcare, and industrial fronts. Neither side has filled the lists with obscure or peripheral items. This indicates that the concessions are targeted and come with “give-and-take.”
Its significance goes beyond sentiment. In the short term, the uncertainty surrounding trade frictions is narrowing. Global markets’ risk-avoidance expectations of “tariffs driving inflation and supply chains breaking again” may cool, and preferences for risk assets could recover. In the medium term, tariff reductions on consumer goods and intermediate inputs will directly ease U.S. household spending and reduce import costs for Chinese companies—both positive factors for inflation control on both sides and for stabilizing supply chains.
Of course, this is still “cooling off,” not “ceasefire.” Deeper issues such as remaining tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and industrial subsidies have not yet reached the bottom. But at the very least, both sides are willing to put real goods backed by real dollars on the table and pull tariff rates back. That in itself is a long-awaited rational signal in the narrative of a trade war—confrontation has a cost, and stepping back is more worthwhile than hardening one’s stance.
Don’t just watch Nvidia—AI’s “landlords” are quietly collecting rent
Everyone’s watching the AI market, their eyes glued to Nvidia, Microsoft, and OpenAI: the moment Jensen Huang shows up in a leather jacket, the U.S. stocks act like they’ve been injected with adrenaline; when Sam Altman says, “Next year will be even more intense,” analysts change their earnings forecasts overnight. But if you really think the future of AI is just “a few big players in California closing the door to make chips, training models, and conveniently ruling the world,” then it’s a bit like thinking you only need to buy a pot to open a hotpot restaurant—yes, the pot matters, but without electricity, without gas, without a shop, without drainage pipes, what you cook isn’t hotpot; it’s a fire-drill.
BTC Reclaims $80,000: Bad News Didn’t Hit, But I Don’t Recommend You Chase It Now
This week, the macro environment and regulation are actually not very friendly: • The Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25bp, bringing interest rates to 3.75%–4.00%; • In the U.S., the (CLARITY Act) advanced in the Senate but was blocked; • In the first half of the week, BTC once dipped back toward around 77,000. But on September 18, BTC not only reclaimed 80,000, it also briefly surged to between $81.2k and $81.4k. ETH rose in tandem by about 7%–8%, and SOL, XRP, and others also followed. At the same time, the US spot BTC ETF ended its streak of outflows and recorded roughly $160 million in net inflows. My judgment is straightforward: This isn’t a “full return of the bull market,” but a rebound driven by the combined effects of “bad news being digested + short-covering + ETF capital returning.”
Not exactly quiet lately for NVIDIA: China is investigating whether it actually kept the promise of “fair treatment” made back when it acquired Micrelax; meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Justice is also scrutinizing NVIDIA and Groq’s $17 billion “technology licensing + core personnel joining” deal, suspecting it may be a “backdoor acquisition” meant to sidestep antitrust review.
It sounds scary, but translated into plain language it means this: regulators worry that NVIDIA is getting too strong—don’t let it swallow up all its rivals. These investigations may rattle sentiment in the short term, but most likely the outcome is fines or process improvements. It’s unlikely NVIDIA gets broken up, and it definitely won’t make AI data centers start returning GPUs.
What really drives the stock price is still: “Are there buyers? Can they supply enough?” The answer is straightforward: buyers are lining up. In the latest quarter, revenue hit $96.2 billion—up 100% year over year. The next-quarter guidance is $108 billion. Huang Renxun says NVIDIA can still grow another 70% in the coming fiscal year, with roughly $2 trillion in orders on hand. Blackwell is already in short supply; Rubin will take over. CUDA, network cards, full machine racks, and the ecosystem of cloud providers are all tightly integrated—competitors may rise, but replacing NVIDIA is not something that will happen in just two or three years.
Of course there are risks: China revenue is not steady; HBM and packaging capacity are bottlenecks; gross margins could slide a bit from 75%; and Amazon/Google’s in-house chips may take some share of inference scenarios. But those are more like “earn less / longer lead times,” not “demand is gone.”
So NVIDIA recently is like the top student in class getting checked for homework—not because the grades are bad, but because the fame and power are too big, so regulators want to verify the rules. As long as the world is still building AI factories, NVIDIA is selling “shovels + engines + an operating system.”
My take is simple: short term there can be regulatory and valuation swings, but in the long run I still look favorably on NVIDIA stock. Don’t treat it like a risk-free deposit, but don’t declare the AI compute-cycle over too early either—chances are you’ll be wrong.$NVDA.US
NVDAUS+1.45%
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