2026-10-3
This straight-up-and-straight-down kind of market is already beyond frustrating. Although the small Non-Farm and the big Non-Farm are par for the course, this time the move is just too big 😂... Last night I spent time building models with the little cat until 2 a.m., and it was a mess until 5 a.m.; I watched it go green until 8 a.m. only to find that when it finally moved, it was already past 5 p.m.... This weekend’s trash market—whether you wake up early or late, it’s pretty much the same....
Hang in there and watch what happens after 10.4. In 2024, it was a pullback from 9.27 to 10.4—let’s see if history is going to rhyme in an incredibly similar way.
If there’s a good side, it’s that the top is rising and the bottom is also rising. But in reality, by sweeping liquidity like this—back and forth—the leftover funds inside the market are getting fewer and fewer. For the market to turn better, it must have enough “dumb money effect,” meaning you can still make some money even with mindless trades, and that’s what attracts more out-of-market capital to come in. For example, in the past with U.S. stocks, “blindly going long” could still make money, so a huge amount of capital got lured over. Now in the crypto market, it’s like a “gu-raising” game: only smart people and old hands can pick up profit from the fire. Newbies who come in end up getting churned like they’re feeding a meat grinder. In a market like that, there is no wealth-creating ability, and there’s no dumb money effect either. It being hard to play is inevitable. As liquidity continues to dry up further, the market will only become more extreme, and the difficulty of making money will only keep rising. In essence, this is “selection”—in the end, what remains are the “gu kings” 😂
The recent 1-hour suppression zone is 848-851. If the candle closes back above, a new rebound can start. Potential support: 840-841.
There’s nothing much to watch tonight. Just keep an eye on tomorrow night’s line.
This straight-up-and-straight-down kind of market is already beyond frustrating. Although the small Non-Farm and the big Non-Farm are par for the course, this time the move is just too big 😂... Last night I spent time building models with the little cat until 2 a.m., and it was a mess until 5 a.m.; I watched it go green until 8 a.m. only to find that when it finally moved, it was already past 5 p.m.... This weekend’s trash market—whether you wake up early or late, it’s pretty much the same....
Hang in there and watch what happens after 10.4. In 2024, it was a pullback from 9.27 to 10.4—let’s see if history is going to rhyme in an incredibly similar way.
If there’s a good side, it’s that the top is rising and the bottom is also rising. But in reality, by sweeping liquidity like this—back and forth—the leftover funds inside the market are getting fewer and fewer. For the market to turn better, it must have enough “dumb money effect,” meaning you can still make some money even with mindless trades, and that’s what attracts more out-of-market capital to come in. For example, in the past with U.S. stocks, “blindly going long” could still make money, so a huge amount of capital got lured over. Now in the crypto market, it’s like a “gu-raising” game: only smart people and old hands can pick up profit from the fire. Newbies who come in end up getting churned like they’re feeding a meat grinder. In a market like that, there is no wealth-creating ability, and there’s no dumb money effect either. It being hard to play is inevitable. As liquidity continues to dry up further, the market will only become more extreme, and the difficulty of making money will only keep rising. In essence, this is “selection”—in the end, what remains are the “gu kings” 😂
The recent 1-hour suppression zone is 848-851. If the candle closes back above, a new rebound can start. Potential support: 840-841.
There’s nothing much to watch tonight. Just keep an eye on tomorrow night’s line.
