Yesterday, the Non-Farm Payrolls was a positive for the market. The semiconductor rebound is pretty good. After the Nasdaq broke to a new high, it pulled back.
But for storage, due to news-flow pressure, the previous price increases were not followed by building new factories—nothing had been built. Now, someone has started building. Next question is whether Seagate and Western Digital will follow suit. Most likely they will, in line with the expansion. Data center demand is still increasing, but if orders are locked and production and deliveries don’t happen, then it turns into financial leverage.
HDD leads the way—how far can the rest be behind? That’s why yesterday SanDisk and Micron also pulled back. Most of it is negative on the supply side. With the supply situation like this, it’s hard to lift margins and net profit again. Price hikes also can’t keep going long, because supply expansion will eventually catch up—same logic as the previous day when Micron was analyzed: physical limits.
If you want to take market share from data centers, you can’t keep locking orders indefinitely. They can wait, because the gap—this grid-connection timing—takes even longer than the storage cycle.
So on the chart, things are a bit chaotic right now. There isn’t the same resonance and various expected positive catalysts that existed before July. In that case, holding back and being less active may be a better choice.
When rebounds are relatively strong, continue to add a short position on Hynix.
$SKHYNIX $SNDK
#存储
But for storage, due to news-flow pressure, the previous price increases were not followed by building new factories—nothing had been built. Now, someone has started building. Next question is whether Seagate and Western Digital will follow suit. Most likely they will, in line with the expansion. Data center demand is still increasing, but if orders are locked and production and deliveries don’t happen, then it turns into financial leverage.
HDD leads the way—how far can the rest be behind? That’s why yesterday SanDisk and Micron also pulled back. Most of it is negative on the supply side. With the supply situation like this, it’s hard to lift margins and net profit again. Price hikes also can’t keep going long, because supply expansion will eventually catch up—same logic as the previous day when Micron was analyzed: physical limits.
If you want to take market share from data centers, you can’t keep locking orders indefinitely. They can wait, because the gap—this grid-connection timing—takes even longer than the storage cycle.
So on the chart, things are a bit chaotic right now. There isn’t the same resonance and various expected positive catalysts that existed before July. In that case, holding back and being less active may be a better choice.
When rebounds are relatively strong, continue to add a short position on Hynix.
$SKHYNIX $SNDK
#存储
