$ETH $DOGE $UNI At dawn, the Federal Reserve made an emergency statement: it’s not that they won’t do it! 😅
Here’s the translation: Don’t think that if the jobs report (non-farm payrolls) misses, the Fed will admit defeat. Now the market has been pushed from “continued rate hikes” to “skip October and keep December.” If they don’t hike in October, things are basically steady—but the probability of a rate hike in December this week jumped from 70% to 84% 🔥. That means pausing in October actually becomes the condition for continuing hikes in December.
Williams and Jefferson came out and “dove-bombed” the market, pulling the probability of a rate hike in October from 70% down to 28%. But this isn’t a dovish shift—it’s expectations management. The market ran too far, and you have to pull it back: don’t trade as if they’ll keep hiking in a row—go back and look at the data 📊.
In the early hours of Saturday, Goolsbee and Harker wrapped up. Goolsbee said he doesn’t rule out any decision; Harker was even more important: employment is just cooling off, inflation hasn’t been solved yet, and rate hikes are still on the table 🧐.
What hurts the most is this: even with the non-farm payrolls so weak, Treasury yields haven’t really fallen. If next week’s yields stay elevated—or even surge again—global assets may have another round of punishment 💥.
What do you think—will things blow up next week? Chat in the comments below 👇
#美联储 #美债 #全球市场
Here’s the translation: Don’t think that if the jobs report (non-farm payrolls) misses, the Fed will admit defeat. Now the market has been pushed from “continued rate hikes” to “skip October and keep December.” If they don’t hike in October, things are basically steady—but the probability of a rate hike in December this week jumped from 70% to 84% 🔥. That means pausing in October actually becomes the condition for continuing hikes in December.
Williams and Jefferson came out and “dove-bombed” the market, pulling the probability of a rate hike in October from 70% down to 28%. But this isn’t a dovish shift—it’s expectations management. The market ran too far, and you have to pull it back: don’t trade as if they’ll keep hiking in a row—go back and look at the data 📊.
In the early hours of Saturday, Goolsbee and Harker wrapped up. Goolsbee said he doesn’t rule out any decision; Harker was even more important: employment is just cooling off, inflation hasn’t been solved yet, and rate hikes are still on the table 🧐.
What hurts the most is this: even with the non-farm payrolls so weak, Treasury yields haven’t really fallen. If next week’s yields stay elevated—or even surge again—global assets may have another round of punishment 💥.
What do you think—will things blow up next week? Chat in the comments below 👇
#美联储 #美债 #全球市场
