#BTC Market Analysis 10/3
Yesterday’s existing long positions continued to achieve two targets at 85600 and 86500. The high reached 87249, and the distance to the third target 87300 was only 51 points; afterward, price pulled back and triggered the 84000 protection level, and the remaining positions were closed off and taken profit.
In the early hours, BTC dipped to a low of 83842. Within one hour, it reclaimed 84200. The previous low-long condition of 84000–84300 given yesterday triggered again, and the new long position is still open.
1) With NFP data being positive, why did it surge up and then get dumped?
In the U.S., September’s Non-Farm Payrolls added only 290k, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The market initially priced in a decline in rate-hike expectations, pushing BTC up to 87249.
However, before the rally, OI had already built up to around 100k BTC. When price fell back to 83842, OI quickly dropped to 953k BTC, indicating that the positive data was “front-run” by leveraged longs; after the spike, it turned into a deleveraging event for longs.
2) Today’s trading plan
Current price is around 84570. The daily chart is still above EMA7, EMA14, and EMA21. On the 4-hour timeframe, price is pulling back to the EMA21 and the Bollinger midline around 84200–84500, and the larger trend remains mildly bullish.
Continue holding the new long position near 84200. Set stop-loss at 82900. Targets are 85600, 86500, and 87300.
Don’t chase shorts around 84600 if you are in cash. Instead, keep waiting for stabilization in the 84000–84300 zone and then consider entry. If the 4-hour closes below 83800, pause adding positions.
Quick summary: The Non-Farm rally shook out a batch of leveraged longs, but the broader trend wasn’t broken. Keep looking for low longs above 84000, and don’t chase near 84600.
⚠️ Personal order-flow analysis only; not investment advice. Pay attention to position management.
Yesterday’s existing long positions continued to achieve two targets at 85600 and 86500. The high reached 87249, and the distance to the third target 87300 was only 51 points; afterward, price pulled back and triggered the 84000 protection level, and the remaining positions were closed off and taken profit.
In the early hours, BTC dipped to a low of 83842. Within one hour, it reclaimed 84200. The previous low-long condition of 84000–84300 given yesterday triggered again, and the new long position is still open.
1) With NFP data being positive, why did it surge up and then get dumped?
In the U.S., September’s Non-Farm Payrolls added only 290k, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The market initially priced in a decline in rate-hike expectations, pushing BTC up to 87249.
However, before the rally, OI had already built up to around 100k BTC. When price fell back to 83842, OI quickly dropped to 953k BTC, indicating that the positive data was “front-run” by leveraged longs; after the spike, it turned into a deleveraging event for longs.
2) Today’s trading plan
Current price is around 84570. The daily chart is still above EMA7, EMA14, and EMA21. On the 4-hour timeframe, price is pulling back to the EMA21 and the Bollinger midline around 84200–84500, and the larger trend remains mildly bullish.
Continue holding the new long position near 84200. Set stop-loss at 82900. Targets are 85600, 86500, and 87300.
Don’t chase shorts around 84600 if you are in cash. Instead, keep waiting for stabilization in the 84000–84300 zone and then consider entry. If the 4-hour closes below 83800, pause adding positions.
Quick summary: The Non-Farm rally shook out a batch of leveraged longs, but the broader trend wasn’t broken. Keep looking for low longs above 84000, and don’t chase near 84600.
⚠️ Personal order-flow analysis only; not investment advice. Pay attention to position management.
