$AAVE Three days to move from 143 to 187, a gain of 30%. Then it closed three consecutive bearish candles.
But volume shrank to just 0.42 times the average of the previous 20 candles. It won’t drop, and there’s no volume to sell. This isn’t the shorts smashing the market—it’s the longs taking a normal breather.
First, let’s talk about the chart. AAVE began its run from that 4-hour bullish candle at around 4:00 a.m. on Sept 29, when it started from 146.84 and surged to 163.8. Single-candle traded value was $88 million. Immediately after, the candle at 09-29 08 continued pushing—traded volume of $105 million—and directly drove the price up to 171. Those two days were the main breakout phase, and the volume matched very well. After that, it went sideways in the 158–166 range for two days. On Oct 1, it again broke out on increased volume. The candle at 10-02 04 shot up to 187.4 with traded value of $93.6 million. In three days, it had three bursts of volume-driven rallies, and each time the volume never lagged.
Now look at the candle details. The triple-bearish sequence happened after the peak at 187.4. The first candle pulled back from 187.4 to 180.57. The second closed at 183.8. The third closed at 181.83. Notice one thing—the lows of these three bearish candles never broke below 180. The 180 level has clear buy support. Also, the bearish bodies get progressively smaller, and the lower wicks start appearing. The shorts tried three times but couldn’t get through 180—their momentum is running out.
From a volume-price structure perspective: rallies on expanding volume, and pullbacks on shrinking volume—textbook healthy structure. The most recent 4-hour traded value is only $21.4 million, compared with $50 million average over the previous 20 candles—down by more than half. This shows sell-side pressure isn’t active, and holders of cash don’t want to give up their positions at this level.
Market sentiment: the funding rate is +0.0068%, meaning longs are paying a small premium. It’s not crowded, and there’s no obvious imbalance between longs and shorts. This funding level suggests the market isn’t excessively leveraged; longs haven’t reached a frenzy. Compared with the funding rate during the main breakout phase a few days ago, it’s actually cooler now. In a calm environment like this, price action that forms is often more durable than a rally driven by peak emotion.
As for big players: in the Sept 29 surge, the day’s traded value exceeded $200 million—this level of volume isn’t something retail traders can push. From Oct 1 to 2, volume surged again to over $300 million, clearly indicating large capital is continuously accumulating. During the pullbacks, trading volume quickly shrank to the low tens of millions range; big money didn’t sell. If the main force wanted to exit, they wouldn’t do it while volume is shrinking.
As a leading project in the DeFi lending sector, AAVE—amid the broader recovery in decentralized finance—has remained a prime allocation target for capital. On-chain lending TVL has kept rising, protocol revenue is stable, and the fundamentals provide strong price support. This move from 143 isn’t just emotion-driven speculation; it has fundamental backing.
Support at 162.2—this was the low of the Oct 1 pullback and also a second confirmation of the consolidation level. Resistance at 187.4, which was just touched in the early hours today. In the short term, 180 is the line between bulls and bears. If 180 holds, the market will most likely test 187 again. If 187 breaks, upside space opens. If 180 breaks down, expect a retest near 170 for support.
Nini’s plan: current price is 181.83. I’m relatively bullish. The triple-bearish candles that don’t break 180, combined with extreme volume contraction, are a strong sign of bullish consolidation. If it pulls back to around 180 and stabilizes, you can try a small long position with a tight stop below 176. If it breaks 187.4, add more. If it breaks below 180 and volume expands, stay on the sidelines and look again around 170.
If you need a tailored strategy, you can find Nini.
#AAVE #DeFi # Lending
But volume shrank to just 0.42 times the average of the previous 20 candles. It won’t drop, and there’s no volume to sell. This isn’t the shorts smashing the market—it’s the longs taking a normal breather.
First, let’s talk about the chart. AAVE began its run from that 4-hour bullish candle at around 4:00 a.m. on Sept 29, when it started from 146.84 and surged to 163.8. Single-candle traded value was $88 million. Immediately after, the candle at 09-29 08 continued pushing—traded volume of $105 million—and directly drove the price up to 171. Those two days were the main breakout phase, and the volume matched very well. After that, it went sideways in the 158–166 range for two days. On Oct 1, it again broke out on increased volume. The candle at 10-02 04 shot up to 187.4 with traded value of $93.6 million. In three days, it had three bursts of volume-driven rallies, and each time the volume never lagged.
Now look at the candle details. The triple-bearish sequence happened after the peak at 187.4. The first candle pulled back from 187.4 to 180.57. The second closed at 183.8. The third closed at 181.83. Notice one thing—the lows of these three bearish candles never broke below 180. The 180 level has clear buy support. Also, the bearish bodies get progressively smaller, and the lower wicks start appearing. The shorts tried three times but couldn’t get through 180—their momentum is running out.
From a volume-price structure perspective: rallies on expanding volume, and pullbacks on shrinking volume—textbook healthy structure. The most recent 4-hour traded value is only $21.4 million, compared with $50 million average over the previous 20 candles—down by more than half. This shows sell-side pressure isn’t active, and holders of cash don’t want to give up their positions at this level.
Market sentiment: the funding rate is +0.0068%, meaning longs are paying a small premium. It’s not crowded, and there’s no obvious imbalance between longs and shorts. This funding level suggests the market isn’t excessively leveraged; longs haven’t reached a frenzy. Compared with the funding rate during the main breakout phase a few days ago, it’s actually cooler now. In a calm environment like this, price action that forms is often more durable than a rally driven by peak emotion.
As for big players: in the Sept 29 surge, the day’s traded value exceeded $200 million—this level of volume isn’t something retail traders can push. From Oct 1 to 2, volume surged again to over $300 million, clearly indicating large capital is continuously accumulating. During the pullbacks, trading volume quickly shrank to the low tens of millions range; big money didn’t sell. If the main force wanted to exit, they wouldn’t do it while volume is shrinking.
As a leading project in the DeFi lending sector, AAVE—amid the broader recovery in decentralized finance—has remained a prime allocation target for capital. On-chain lending TVL has kept rising, protocol revenue is stable, and the fundamentals provide strong price support. This move from 143 isn’t just emotion-driven speculation; it has fundamental backing.
Support at 162.2—this was the low of the Oct 1 pullback and also a second confirmation of the consolidation level. Resistance at 187.4, which was just touched in the early hours today. In the short term, 180 is the line between bulls and bears. If 180 holds, the market will most likely test 187 again. If 187 breaks, upside space opens. If 180 breaks down, expect a retest near 170 for support.
Nini’s plan: current price is 181.83. I’m relatively bullish. The triple-bearish candles that don’t break 180, combined with extreme volume contraction, are a strong sign of bullish consolidation. If it pulls back to around 180 and stabilizes, you can try a small long position with a tight stop below 176. If it breaks 187.4, add more. If it breaks below 180 and volume expands, stay on the sidelines and look again around 170.
If you need a tailored strategy, you can find Nini.
#AAVE #DeFi # Lending