That NFP at 8:30 tonight has me shaking my head.
In the U.S., September added only 29,000 jobs. The market was originally betting on around 90,000. Worse, the data for the first two months was revised downward by another 60,000. This isn’t just a miss versus expectations—it’s basically flipping the table over.
As soon as the numbers came out, the dollar got smashed lower hard. Bitcoin surged above 87,000 within an hour, up more than 3 percentage points on the day, and it’s now hovering around 86,500.
Doesn’t this script feel familiar? Once rate-cut expectations kick in, risk assets get hyped first. And the next day, there are always people in the group who say the positions with their life savings were “planned in advance.”
What I hate the most is chasing data at night. Not many people who bet on the data end up with good outcomes. If you really need to move, wait until this wave of sentiment passes and you can see clearly—don’t mistake a one-moment needle thrust for a trend.$BTC
In the U.S., September added only 29,000 jobs. The market was originally betting on around 90,000. Worse, the data for the first two months was revised downward by another 60,000. This isn’t just a miss versus expectations—it’s basically flipping the table over.
As soon as the numbers came out, the dollar got smashed lower hard. Bitcoin surged above 87,000 within an hour, up more than 3 percentage points on the day, and it’s now hovering around 86,500.
Doesn’t this script feel familiar? Once rate-cut expectations kick in, risk assets get hyped first. And the next day, there are always people in the group who say the positions with their life savings were “planned in advance.”
What I hate the most is chasing data at night. Not many people who bet on the data end up with good outcomes. If you really need to move, wait until this wave of sentiment passes and you can see clearly—don’t mistake a one-moment needle thrust for a trend.$BTC
