The probability of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate hike has fallen to 16.1%. According to #CMEGroup, 83.9% of market participants are betting on a pause.

And this despite the fact that at the beginning of the week more than 65% of players in the market were still expecting an interest-rate hike. As a result, first these expectations significantly weakened the favorable Personal Consumption Expenditure Indexes, and today market-labor data has "sealed the deal".

The situation, of course, looks globally "green". Outside the window, Uptober, macro data is positive, and the trend is looking up. People are positioned as bullish as possible. What could stand in the way of further continuation of this growth is only overbought conditions and the higher-TF prior highs marked by our indicator.

In a good way, of course, going against expectations right now is the best time. But while the uptrend on the 3-hour TF remains in place, any expectations of a correction are essentially being sucked out of a bear’s paw.