The first day of Uptober: good news piled up—85,000 units of sell-wall defenses broken, and ETFs pulled in 103 million USD in a single day. But Glassnode throws a bucket of cold water: the real confirmation hasn’t come yet.
What happened:
• US spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of 103 million USD in one day. BlackRock’s IBIT alone absorbed 196 million—other products had net outflows of 93 million, with inflows highly concentrated;
• BTC surged to a high of $86,857 intraday, up nearly 3% over 24 hours, breaking through the large sell-order wall around $85,000;
• Glassnode: around $86,000 is the average break-even level for overall US spot BTC ETF investors. If price holds above it, ETF funds move back into the average-profit zone and trapped positions’ sell pressure declines; if it falls back, unrealized-loss positions will re-emerge and get dumped again;
• $87,000–$87,300 is the latest liquidation liquidity concentration zone. If price breaks through, short positions above may trigger a chain liquidation. If it can’t go higher, this move may also be a brief “short covering” blip;
• Tonight, the US September Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) will be released (expected +90,000). If the data comes in even slightly different from expectations, risk assets will be repriced immediately.
My take: Uptober’s opening is a resonance of sentiment + capital, but don’t just watch the fireworks. The true “buy pressure” was the nearly 1 billion USD inflow on September 21—right now 1 hundred million is only half a recovery. The $86k break-even line is worth more than any technical level because it’s the cost basis of institutional capital: if it holds, the previously trapped ETF positions become a tailwind; if it doesn’t, any rebound is a trimming/deleveraging window. Next, we’ll see whether ETF inflows can keep amplifying, and what tonight’s NFP does.
Data as of: 2026-10-02 12:00 UTC
Source: MyToken; Blockcast
For information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC
#Bitcoin rises to around $86k #Tonight NFP
Do you think this $86,000 institutional cost line can hold tonight?
I’ll keep tracking this kind of data—follow me so you won’t get lost.
What happened:
• US spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of 103 million USD in one day. BlackRock’s IBIT alone absorbed 196 million—other products had net outflows of 93 million, with inflows highly concentrated;
• BTC surged to a high of $86,857 intraday, up nearly 3% over 24 hours, breaking through the large sell-order wall around $85,000;
• Glassnode: around $86,000 is the average break-even level for overall US spot BTC ETF investors. If price holds above it, ETF funds move back into the average-profit zone and trapped positions’ sell pressure declines; if it falls back, unrealized-loss positions will re-emerge and get dumped again;
• $87,000–$87,300 is the latest liquidation liquidity concentration zone. If price breaks through, short positions above may trigger a chain liquidation. If it can’t go higher, this move may also be a brief “short covering” blip;
• Tonight, the US September Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) will be released (expected +90,000). If the data comes in even slightly different from expectations, risk assets will be repriced immediately.
My take: Uptober’s opening is a resonance of sentiment + capital, but don’t just watch the fireworks. The true “buy pressure” was the nearly 1 billion USD inflow on September 21—right now 1 hundred million is only half a recovery. The $86k break-even line is worth more than any technical level because it’s the cost basis of institutional capital: if it holds, the previously trapped ETF positions become a tailwind; if it doesn’t, any rebound is a trimming/deleveraging window. Next, we’ll see whether ETF inflows can keep amplifying, and what tonight’s NFP does.
Data as of: 2026-10-02 12:00 UTC
Source: MyToken; Blockcast
For information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC
#Bitcoin rises to around $86k #Tonight NFP
Do you think this $86,000 institutional cost line can hold tonight?
I’ll keep tracking this kind of data—follow me so you won’t get lost.
