Analyst Ali Martinez drew attention to a pattern: Bitcoin fell 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27% after the 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022 elections. The next one is on November 3, 2026. Before getting scared, it’s worth understanding what that means. (finbold)
What he said (and what he didn’t)
Martinez himself notes that this does not prove that the elections caused the declines. He points to the level to watch in the US$73k area, which represents the average cost of short-term holders. According to CryptoPotato, he suggested taking profits at the end of October, expecting US$100k, and buying again near US$73k after the elections. This is his scenario, not a guaranteed forecast. (Analyst warns U.S. midterm elections could spark ‘Bitcoin dump’ +2)
Why the pattern can be misleading
The numbers do not show how long it took for the declines to happen. In 2010, BTC rose 391% in the fourth quarter despite the cited 72% drop.
In 2010 the market was different, and the downturns of 2018 and 2022 were linked to crypto and macroeconomic shocks.
Q4 of 2014, 2018, and 2022 ended negative: -16.70%, -42.16%, and -14.75%. Those are only three cases, a small sample. (Bitcoin Plummeted After the Last 4 Midterm Elections: Will History Repeat? - Benzinga +2)
What comes after the downturns
Binance Research found a sharp drop in the midterm years of 2014, 2018, and 2022, but also an average gain of 54% in the 12 months following the elections. (crypto-economy)
In stocks, the track record is more consistent
According to Fidelity, the S&P 500 had positive returns in the 12 months after midterm elections in 95% of cases since 1938. U.S. Bank shows the average was 12.4% in the 12 months that followed, and 17.5% when considering the elections since 1980. This same study highlights that the economy weighs more in returns than the election itself. (Yahoo Finance) (usbank)
My take
The pattern is a warning about volatility, not a prediction of a decline. Four cases do not form a rule, and the 12-month history favors those with a long-term horizon. If you trade in the short term, define your risk before November 3.
Do you think Bitcoin repeats the pattern this time? Comment below and follow me here to track the analysis until the election.
This is not investment advice.
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