Important, pay close attention—very, very important!
Please make sure you read through.
Why doesn’t A-Xin let you touch the top and short early at $BTC , $ETH :
1. Oil has fallen. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have also dropped.
And within the current macro trading framework, oil falling + Treasury yields (10-year) falling is a clear macro tailwind for BTC, which tends to push BTC’s price higher.
2. The entire macro transmission mechanism is as follows (four-step reaction from oil to BTC):
Oil price falls → lowers energy and transportation costs [inflation expectations (CPI/PCE) cool off] → markets debate the Fed’s rate cuts / easing → 10-year U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index fall (discount rates decline + discounted assets become less attractive) → risk-free yields fall / global liquidity is released → capital flows into risk assets / scarce assets (BTC & technology stocks)
3. Unless the following sell-off structure is confirmed (as shown in the chart), don’t go trying to short at the top against the trend. Instead, wait patiently for clear signals before making a decision.
Because in the macro environment I mentioned above (oil falling + Treasury yields falling), BTC should be going up. So if you want BTC to drop, you must first see technical confirmation of a downside structure before shorting. Otherwise, if a real breakout happens tonight—then the shorts will be in a very tragic situation.
Please make sure you read through.
Why doesn’t A-Xin let you touch the top and short early at $BTC , $ETH :
1. Oil has fallen. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have also dropped.
And within the current macro trading framework, oil falling + Treasury yields (10-year) falling is a clear macro tailwind for BTC, which tends to push BTC’s price higher.
2. The entire macro transmission mechanism is as follows (four-step reaction from oil to BTC):
Oil price falls → lowers energy and transportation costs [inflation expectations (CPI/PCE) cool off] → markets debate the Fed’s rate cuts / easing → 10-year U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index fall (discount rates decline + discounted assets become less attractive) → risk-free yields fall / global liquidity is released → capital flows into risk assets / scarce assets (BTC & technology stocks)
3. Unless the following sell-off structure is confirmed (as shown in the chart), don’t go trying to short at the top against the trend. Instead, wait patiently for clear signals before making a decision.
Because in the macro environment I mentioned above (oil falling + Treasury yields falling), BTC should be going up. So if you want BTC to drop, you must first see technical confirmation of a downside structure before shorting. Otherwise, if a real breakout happens tonight—then the shorts will be in a very tragic situation.
