The US Dollar Index is at its strongest in 18 months, and at a time when US Treasury yields are at 5.36%, BTC nevertheless manages to move up above $86,000—yesterday, Wall Street bank Citi even raised its 12-month target price from $82,000 to $113,000.
What happened: In an Oct 1 research note, Citi raised its 12-month BTC target price from $82,000 to $113,000, and raised its ETH target from 2,240 to 3,028. The reasons cited are renewed inflows of ETF funds and an improving macro environment. Citi expects that over the next 12 months, net inflows into crypto investment products will total $5 billion. This morning, BTC briefly touched $86,885. During the roughly 60 minutes when it regained the $86,000 level, about $120 million in short positions were squeezed out. On-chain, market participants are also lining up: CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost’s data shows that, over the past 30 days, large whale stablecoins—each transaction over $1 million—have cumulatively flowed into Binance totaling $30.5 billion. In just over a month, that’s up more than 40% (from $21.7 billion).
What I think: Whales moving “ammunition” onto exchanges is a real sign of preparation—such inflows often correspond to potential buying demand. But stablecoin deposits do not automatically mean the tokens are definitely being bought; they could also be used for hedging or to top up margin. Don’t treat the signal as a conclusion. Citi’s target price reflects Wall Street’s view, not a guarantee. BTC has already rebounded nearly 40% from its July lows, and chasing or bottom-fishing at this point is uncomfortable. More importantly, tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls data (8:30 a.m. Eastern Time) is the real source of volatility today. My approach: before the data is released, I won’t add leverage; I’ll wait for the dust to settle and then reassess. Surviving days like this matters more than nailing the direction.
Data as of: 2026-10-02 11:00 UTC
Sources: Reuters report on Oct 1; CoinDesk; crypto.news (CryptoQuant Darkfost data)
For information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.
I’ll keep following this kind of data, so you won’t get lost.
$BTC $ETH
What happened: In an Oct 1 research note, Citi raised its 12-month BTC target price from $82,000 to $113,000, and raised its ETH target from 2,240 to 3,028. The reasons cited are renewed inflows of ETF funds and an improving macro environment. Citi expects that over the next 12 months, net inflows into crypto investment products will total $5 billion. This morning, BTC briefly touched $86,885. During the roughly 60 minutes when it regained the $86,000 level, about $120 million in short positions were squeezed out. On-chain, market participants are also lining up: CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost’s data shows that, over the past 30 days, large whale stablecoins—each transaction over $1 million—have cumulatively flowed into Binance totaling $30.5 billion. In just over a month, that’s up more than 40% (from $21.7 billion).
What I think: Whales moving “ammunition” onto exchanges is a real sign of preparation—such inflows often correspond to potential buying demand. But stablecoin deposits do not automatically mean the tokens are definitely being bought; they could also be used for hedging or to top up margin. Don’t treat the signal as a conclusion. Citi’s target price reflects Wall Street’s view, not a guarantee. BTC has already rebounded nearly 40% from its July lows, and chasing or bottom-fishing at this point is uncomfortable. More importantly, tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls data (8:30 a.m. Eastern Time) is the real source of volatility today. My approach: before the data is released, I won’t add leverage; I’ll wait for the dust to settle and then reassess. Surviving days like this matters more than nailing the direction.
Data as of: 2026-10-02 11:00 UTC
Sources: Reuters report on Oct 1; CoinDesk; crypto.news (CryptoQuant Darkfost data)
For information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.
I’ll keep following this kind of data, so you won’t get lost.
$BTC $ETH
