Tonight at 8:30! This NFP “bomb” — does it blow up expectations for a rate hike, or the market trend?
Brothers, tonight at 8:30, the September NFP will be released.
Expectations: +90,000 jobs added, unemployment rate at 4.1%. But the key isn’t the number itself—it's whether the Fed will still dare to hike in October after this data comes out.
Last week, the Fed just raised rates by 25 bps, and the dot plot hinted there could be one more hike later in the year. But lately, market expectations have started to loosen: the probability of a hike in October has slipped from around 70% previously to around 50%.
Why? Because although ADP—the so-called “mini-NFP”—was pretty strong, JOLTS job openings dropped sharply. Low hiring, low layoffs—this combo, in plain terms, means companies are watching and waiting. They don’t dare to cut jobs, and they don’t dare to hire either.
So tonight there are basically two scenarios:
Data stronger than expected → rate-hike expectations heat up again. U.S. Treasury yields push higher, which is a short-term pressure on crypto. But once the “bad news” fully passes through, the market may actually breathe easier—bad news priced in.
Data weaker than expected → the expected pace of a October hike keeps cooling, and risk assets directly take off. Crypto is the most sensitive to liquidity—the first reaction will be there.
Right now, BTC is hovering around 86,000, and ETH is around 2,750. Before 8:30 tonight, it’s likely to trade in a tight range—everyone’s waiting for the cue.
Brothers, tonight at 8:30, the September NFP will be released.
Expectations: +90,000 jobs added, unemployment rate at 4.1%. But the key isn’t the number itself—it's whether the Fed will still dare to hike in October after this data comes out.
Last week, the Fed just raised rates by 25 bps, and the dot plot hinted there could be one more hike later in the year. But lately, market expectations have started to loosen: the probability of a hike in October has slipped from around 70% previously to around 50%.
Why? Because although ADP—the so-called “mini-NFP”—was pretty strong, JOLTS job openings dropped sharply. Low hiring, low layoffs—this combo, in plain terms, means companies are watching and waiting. They don’t dare to cut jobs, and they don’t dare to hire either.
So tonight there are basically two scenarios:
Data stronger than expected → rate-hike expectations heat up again. U.S. Treasury yields push higher, which is a short-term pressure on crypto. But once the “bad news” fully passes through, the market may actually breathe easier—bad news priced in.
Data weaker than expected → the expected pace of a October hike keeps cooling, and risk assets directly take off. Crypto is the most sensitive to liquidity—the first reaction will be there.
Right now, BTC is hovering around 86,000, and ETH is around 2,750. Before 8:30 tonight, it’s likely to trade in a tight range—everyone’s waiting for the cue.
