Midday $BTC — one route quickly pushed up from around $84,000 to $86,888, arriving right at the threshold of the key resistance level at $87,000. Against a backdrop of generally weak Asian equities, this independent surge stands out even more.
The catalyst behind the unusual market activity points directly to the US Non-Farm Payrolls employment report scheduled to land tonight. As the market’s probability expectations for further rate hikes in October dropped sharply from around 70% to about 25%, risk appetite for rate-sensitive assets warmed up rapidly. Combined with ETF fund inflows and a sentiment boost from institutions raising expectations to $113,000, some positions chose to front-run and bet ahead of the data release.
The real battleground lies in the chain reaction after the employment data is published. The market currently expects about 84,000 new jobs added, down notably from the prior value of 162,000. Softer-than-expected figures would further strengthen expectations for rate cuts, providing momentum for risk appetite and supporting price upside potential. But if employment and wage performance come in significantly above expectations, a rebound in US Treasury yields and a resurgence in rate-hike bets would quickly suppress liquidity expectations, and the short-term long positions accumulated during the midday rally would face intense wicks and profit-taking pressure.
Right now, $85,000 has just turned into a short-term support zone. With tonight’s liquidity shock occurring instantly upon the data release, whether this area can effectively absorb selling pressure is the key to judging whether bullish momentum can continue.
The catalyst behind the unusual market activity points directly to the US Non-Farm Payrolls employment report scheduled to land tonight. As the market’s probability expectations for further rate hikes in October dropped sharply from around 70% to about 25%, risk appetite for rate-sensitive assets warmed up rapidly. Combined with ETF fund inflows and a sentiment boost from institutions raising expectations to $113,000, some positions chose to front-run and bet ahead of the data release.
The real battleground lies in the chain reaction after the employment data is published. The market currently expects about 84,000 new jobs added, down notably from the prior value of 162,000. Softer-than-expected figures would further strengthen expectations for rate cuts, providing momentum for risk appetite and supporting price upside potential. But if employment and wage performance come in significantly above expectations, a rebound in US Treasury yields and a resurgence in rate-hike bets would quickly suppress liquidity expectations, and the short-term long positions accumulated during the midday rally would face intense wicks and profit-taking pressure.
Right now, $85,000 has just turned into a short-term support zone. With tonight’s liquidity shock occurring instantly upon the data release, whether this area can effectively absorb selling pressure is the key to judging whether bullish momentum can continue.