“Hard Mode” is a money-losing mode.
I lost money again today.
Everyone who knows me well knows that I’ve been bearish lately.
Today, a single big bullish candle caused me to experience a fairly large drawdown.
My position was still a bit too heavy.
In the ranging (consolidation) zone, I shouldn’t put such a heavy position.
I bought too many assets.
When there isn’t a clear, certain opportunity, I should focus on BTC and ETH to trade the range through arbitrage.
Sometimes, I even turned a short-term trade into a long-term one.
I originally had some decent profit, but I still chose to let it run and keep holding.
That hold ended up pushing me back to where I stopped out.
Reflection and summary are as follows:
1. This is indeed “Hard Mode,” a disorderly ranging market. So when you’re at about the right spot, you should take profit. Since it’s a ranging market, you should trade according to the methods of a ranging market, not chase compounding just because you have profits.
2. I still have too little experience with the current market conditions. Failing to confidently take profit and stick to it is a reflection of my lack of experience.
3. Yesterday I analyzed ETF fund flows. At the moment, there isn’t any significant outflow. Without major “bearish/going-short” news, if liquidity is still stable (no large ETF outflows), then I should decisively stand on the side of the funds. Funds are the underlying logic for how the market develops—not technical analysis, and not news.
4. The higher-timeframe trend is still a bullish trend. But I’ve been bearish recently. When the uptrend line has been repeatedly validated, you should boldly go long and test, rather than keep being blindly bearish.
5. Understand this: the longer you probe within a small range, the more liquidated (crash-to-zero) positions at the upper and lower boundaries will accumulate. Then, whichever direction the market breaks out, it will be pushed extremely violently.
I lost money again today.
Everyone who knows me well knows that I’ve been bearish lately.
Today, a single big bullish candle caused me to experience a fairly large drawdown.
My position was still a bit too heavy.
In the ranging (consolidation) zone, I shouldn’t put such a heavy position.
I bought too many assets.
When there isn’t a clear, certain opportunity, I should focus on BTC and ETH to trade the range through arbitrage.
Sometimes, I even turned a short-term trade into a long-term one.
I originally had some decent profit, but I still chose to let it run and keep holding.
That hold ended up pushing me back to where I stopped out.
Reflection and summary are as follows:
1. This is indeed “Hard Mode,” a disorderly ranging market. So when you’re at about the right spot, you should take profit. Since it’s a ranging market, you should trade according to the methods of a ranging market, not chase compounding just because you have profits.
2. I still have too little experience with the current market conditions. Failing to confidently take profit and stick to it is a reflection of my lack of experience.
3. Yesterday I analyzed ETF fund flows. At the moment, there isn’t any significant outflow. Without major “bearish/going-short” news, if liquidity is still stable (no large ETF outflows), then I should decisively stand on the side of the funds. Funds are the underlying logic for how the market develops—not technical analysis, and not news.
4. The higher-timeframe trend is still a bullish trend. But I’ve been bearish recently. When the uptrend line has been repeatedly validated, you should boldly go long and test, rather than keep being blindly bearish.
5. Understand this: the longer you probe within a small range, the more liquidated (crash-to-zero) positions at the upper and lower boundaries will accumulate. Then, whichever direction the market breaks out, it will be pushed extremely violently.