#比特币升至8.5万美元附近 Bitcoin has fallen to 85K—can it hold this time?
To be honest, this level is a bit interesting.
On-chain data is sending conflicting signals. One side: the cost basis line for short-term holders has been pushed up to $73,700, and the market price premium has narrowed to about 14%. The profits of those who chased the rally are being eaten up little by little. The other side: in the past ten days, large whales have accumulated more than 40,000 BTC, holding roughly 68% of the total supply. Retail is watching from the sidelines, while big players are stepping in—this structure isn’t bad.
The “smart money” has a signal too: the amount of stablecoins that whales transfer to exchanges has risen from $21.7 billion in a month to $30.5 billion, up 40%. Money is waiting at the door, but it hasn’t fully entered yet.
Looking at alternative data, the Fear & Greed Index is 72—greed, but not extreme. The funding rate is around 0.007%, so leverage hasn’t gone crazy.
Technically, BTC is trading around $86,100, up nearly 3% over the past 24 hours. The 90K level above is a psychological barrier. Below, the short-term holders’ cost basis at $73,700 is a hard support.
My take: holding above 85,000 is a strong signal. A push toward 90,000 is possible, but the condition is that ETF inflows don’t break off. $BTC $ETH
To be honest, this level is a bit interesting.
On-chain data is sending conflicting signals. One side: the cost basis line for short-term holders has been pushed up to $73,700, and the market price premium has narrowed to about 14%. The profits of those who chased the rally are being eaten up little by little. The other side: in the past ten days, large whales have accumulated more than 40,000 BTC, holding roughly 68% of the total supply. Retail is watching from the sidelines, while big players are stepping in—this structure isn’t bad.
The “smart money” has a signal too: the amount of stablecoins that whales transfer to exchanges has risen from $21.7 billion in a month to $30.5 billion, up 40%. Money is waiting at the door, but it hasn’t fully entered yet.
Looking at alternative data, the Fear & Greed Index is 72—greed, but not extreme. The funding rate is around 0.007%, so leverage hasn’t gone crazy.
Technically, BTC is trading around $86,100, up nearly 3% over the past 24 hours. The 90K level above is a psychological barrier. Below, the short-term holders’ cost basis at $73,700 is a hard support.
My take: holding above 85,000 is a strong signal. A push toward 90,000 is possible, but the condition is that ETF inflows don’t break off. $BTC $ETH
