What exactly is everyone panicking about regarding the September nonfarm payrolls that will be released tonight?
Market expectations are for 85,000 to 90,000 new jobs, a significant slowdown from last month. The unemployment rate is expected to stay around 4.1%
The previous figure revisions are the real trap
On the surface, the numbers may look good, but the Fed has often been misled by recently released data. When the data initially comes out and looks strong, it may get heavily revised down the following month. If this time the new job figure meets expectations, but last month’s high figure is revised sharply lower, the market will still trade as if employment is deteriorating
Bad news is no longer good news
Previously, if employment was weak, people would feel that rate cuts were coming and would be happy as stocks rose. But if the new job numbers drop straight below 50,000—or even turn negative—funds won’t celebrate rate cuts. Instead, they’ll panic-sell, directly pricing in an economic downturn
Wage growth is more deadly than the new job count
If the number of new jobs is average, but hours worked and wage growth outperform expectations, the inflation cloud won’t lift. The Fed would then have even more justification to keep interest rates high
If the new jobs data stays within a mild range of 80,000 to 120,000, the market will keep following the rate-cut soft-landing logic—which is good for both BTC and U.S. stocks. But if the data swings to extremes with a sudden surge or plunge, it will trigger a violent shakeout in the short term. Tonight at 8:30, it’s recommended to watch from the sidelines first, and only act after the initial wave of volatility has been digested
$BTC
DYOR
Market expectations are for 85,000 to 90,000 new jobs, a significant slowdown from last month. The unemployment rate is expected to stay around 4.1%
The previous figure revisions are the real trap
On the surface, the numbers may look good, but the Fed has often been misled by recently released data. When the data initially comes out and looks strong, it may get heavily revised down the following month. If this time the new job figure meets expectations, but last month’s high figure is revised sharply lower, the market will still trade as if employment is deteriorating
Bad news is no longer good news
Previously, if employment was weak, people would feel that rate cuts were coming and would be happy as stocks rose. But if the new job numbers drop straight below 50,000—or even turn negative—funds won’t celebrate rate cuts. Instead, they’ll panic-sell, directly pricing in an economic downturn
Wage growth is more deadly than the new job count
If the number of new jobs is average, but hours worked and wage growth outperform expectations, the inflation cloud won’t lift. The Fed would then have even more justification to keep interest rates high
If the new jobs data stays within a mild range of 80,000 to 120,000, the market will keep following the rate-cut soft-landing logic—which is good for both BTC and U.S. stocks. But if the data swings to extremes with a sudden surge or plunge, it will trigger a violent shakeout in the short term. Tonight at 8:30, it’s recommended to watch from the sidelines first, and only act after the initial wave of volatility has been digested
$BTC
DYOR
