After the Wednesday PCE data came out, expectations for a rate hike in October fell from 66% to the current 27.7%.
The nonfarm payrolls data tonight will refocus the market again.
But judging from the BTC rally from last night to today,
the market seems to be anticipating that tonight’s nonfarm payrolls will come in within expectations.
There probably won’t be strong data or numbers that are unexpectedly cold.
As long as employment data does not see a strong rebound,
the probability of a rate hike will not rise significantly.
So, if tonight’s employment report comes in within the range, first check whether the hourly wage rate also falls below expectations.
If it’s above expectations, then don’t get overly bullish.
The nonfarm payrolls data tonight will refocus the market again.
But judging from the BTC rally from last night to today,
the market seems to be anticipating that tonight’s nonfarm payrolls will come in within expectations.
There probably won’t be strong data or numbers that are unexpectedly cold.
As long as employment data does not see a strong rebound,
the probability of a rate hike will not rise significantly.
So, if tonight’s employment report comes in within the range, first check whether the hourly wage rate also falls below expectations.
If it’s above expectations, then don’t get overly bullish.
