The market has already changed the script: it’s no longer about whether we’ll add in October, it’s about whether we can hold out until December.

Yesterday, the 10-year US Treasury yield touched 5.344% intraday—luckily it pulled back again. After the market got startled, it recalibrated pricing.

Now, the probability of holding steady in October is 75.1%, and the probability of adding another 25 basis points in December is 61.3%. That’s why there was this surge of $BTC .