A privacy coin that surged 253% in one year—dropped 21% from its high in a single day 🦖
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Zcash (ZEC) is currently trading at $1,333.50, down 7.29% on the day. Compared with the September-end peak of about $1,698, that’s roughly a 21% decline. In this rally, it rocketed from a bottom of $480.72 to its peak—up about 253%. The larger the gain, the scarier the pullback looks. That’s normal. But behind this drop, there are three forces working at the same time.
First, the most direct: ETF money is starting to flow in reverse. Grayscale’s Zcash ETF (ticker: ZCSH) saw net outflows of $30.25 million on September 30—its first clearly noticeable “bleeding” since it listed on August 25. Cumulative net inflows have fallen from the earlier high to about $268 million. The same morning, its 3-for-1 share split had just taken effect. It raised $260 million more than a month after listing, and then—on the day of the split—recorded its first large outflow. That timing alone is worth pondering.
Second, the mood across the whole market. On Wednesday, Bitcoin initially surged to $85,600 on the back of PCE inflation data coming in below expectations, but then quickly gave back all the gains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 5.29%. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch showed the market’s probability for an October rate hike has already dropped from 70% to below 50%. When the broader market isn’t supportive, high-volatility small coins typically fall faster.
Third, and the easiest to overlook: the shielded pool. On-chain sleuth ZachXBT flagged 2,746 ZEC, worth about $3.9 million, flowing into Zcash’s privacy pool from addresses related to a $387 million theft involving a certain exchange. The amount isn’t large, and it’s not necessarily the direct trigger for today’s drop—but it brings an uncomfortable fact into the spotlight: among the most loyal privacy-coin users, there’s a group that happens to be hackers. ⚠️
My view comes in two layers.
First layer: from a technical standpoint, what it’s showing right now looks like a pullback—not a breakdown. RSI is 50.2, which is completely neutral—neither overbought nor smashed. ADX at 52.0 suggests the trend is strong, but ADX is lagging. The 50-day moving average is still above the 200-day moving average, and the structure hasn’t been broken. The real levels to watch are two prices: if the daily candle closes below $1,233, the “golden zone” should start to kick in; only if it reclaims $1,410.72 can this move genuinely be said to be back on track.
Second layer—and this is what I want to emphasize more: back in June, it already performed the same kind of play. At that time, a serious vulnerability in the shielded pool was exposed. ZEC then crashed from $635 all the way to an intraday low of $309—a decline of 38%. What happened afterward? It still went on to break above $1,600. For a narrative-driven coin, the “hole” created by bad news is often the starting point of the next leg of the cycle. The condition, though, is that it must also withstand the dual pressure from both ETF capital and regulatory attention.
Put simply: a 21% retracement versus a 253% rally is, for now, just profit-taking—not a trend reversal. The real issue is that privacy coins’ “narrative premium” and “regulatory discount” are always tangled together. The stronger they run, the higher the probability they’ll be watched.
Let’s talk in the comments: do you think this is a buy-the-dip opportunity, or a signal that the trend has topped?
Click the avatar to watch the livestream
Every day, I’ll help you track hot spots in privacy coins and ETF fund flows—not just what happens in the news, but also how to understand the underlying logic and opportunities 👀🚀
🔎 进群看完整分析
Zcash (ZEC) is currently trading at $1,333.50, down 7.29% on the day. Compared with the September-end peak of about $1,698, that’s roughly a 21% decline. In this rally, it rocketed from a bottom of $480.72 to its peak—up about 253%. The larger the gain, the scarier the pullback looks. That’s normal. But behind this drop, there are three forces working at the same time.
First, the most direct: ETF money is starting to flow in reverse. Grayscale’s Zcash ETF (ticker: ZCSH) saw net outflows of $30.25 million on September 30—its first clearly noticeable “bleeding” since it listed on August 25. Cumulative net inflows have fallen from the earlier high to about $268 million. The same morning, its 3-for-1 share split had just taken effect. It raised $260 million more than a month after listing, and then—on the day of the split—recorded its first large outflow. That timing alone is worth pondering.
Second, the mood across the whole market. On Wednesday, Bitcoin initially surged to $85,600 on the back of PCE inflation data coming in below expectations, but then quickly gave back all the gains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 5.29%. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch showed the market’s probability for an October rate hike has already dropped from 70% to below 50%. When the broader market isn’t supportive, high-volatility small coins typically fall faster.
Third, and the easiest to overlook: the shielded pool. On-chain sleuth ZachXBT flagged 2,746 ZEC, worth about $3.9 million, flowing into Zcash’s privacy pool from addresses related to a $387 million theft involving a certain exchange. The amount isn’t large, and it’s not necessarily the direct trigger for today’s drop—but it brings an uncomfortable fact into the spotlight: among the most loyal privacy-coin users, there’s a group that happens to be hackers. ⚠️
My view comes in two layers.
First layer: from a technical standpoint, what it’s showing right now looks like a pullback—not a breakdown. RSI is 50.2, which is completely neutral—neither overbought nor smashed. ADX at 52.0 suggests the trend is strong, but ADX is lagging. The 50-day moving average is still above the 200-day moving average, and the structure hasn’t been broken. The real levels to watch are two prices: if the daily candle closes below $1,233, the “golden zone” should start to kick in; only if it reclaims $1,410.72 can this move genuinely be said to be back on track.
Second layer—and this is what I want to emphasize more: back in June, it already performed the same kind of play. At that time, a serious vulnerability in the shielded pool was exposed. ZEC then crashed from $635 all the way to an intraday low of $309—a decline of 38%. What happened afterward? It still went on to break above $1,600. For a narrative-driven coin, the “hole” created by bad news is often the starting point of the next leg of the cycle. The condition, though, is that it must also withstand the dual pressure from both ETF capital and regulatory attention.
Put simply: a 21% retracement versus a 253% rally is, for now, just profit-taking—not a trend reversal. The real issue is that privacy coins’ “narrative premium” and “regulatory discount” are always tangled together. The stronger they run, the higher the probability they’ll be watched.
Let’s talk in the comments: do you think this is a buy-the-dip opportunity, or a signal that the trend has topped?
Click the avatar to watch the livestream
Every day, I’ll help you track hot spots in privacy coins and ETF fund flows—not just what happens in the news, but also how to understand the underlying logic and opportunities 👀🚀
