According to the latest interest rate swap data from CME FedWatch, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in October has risen to 75.1%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point hike is 24.9%. At the December meeting, the market is already pricing in a 25-basis-point hike with a probability of 61.3%, a 50-basis-point hike with a probability of 18.1%, and the probability of holding rates steady is only 20.6%.
This data indicates that market expectations of a policy shift toward easing have been thoroughly dashed. After earlier rate adjustments, sticky inflation and economic resilience have forced policymakers to maintain a hawkish stance, delaying any meaningful move toward liquidity easing.
From a macro perspective, keeping interest rates at high levels for “Higher for Longer” will continue to push up U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index, suppressing risk appetite in traditional capital markets. Global liquidity remains constrained, and the valuation center of gravity faces further downward pressure.
For the crypto market, a high-rate environment limits the pace at which incremental fiat funds can enter. If another rate hike occurs as expected by year-end, the de-leveraging trend will continue; key risk assets such as $BTC may face the risk of episodic liquidity tightening and deeper pullbacks. Investors should be mindful of volatility caused by valuation repricing.📉
#Fed #InterestRates #MacroEconomy
This data indicates that market expectations of a policy shift toward easing have been thoroughly dashed. After earlier rate adjustments, sticky inflation and economic resilience have forced policymakers to maintain a hawkish stance, delaying any meaningful move toward liquidity easing.
From a macro perspective, keeping interest rates at high levels for “Higher for Longer” will continue to push up U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index, suppressing risk appetite in traditional capital markets. Global liquidity remains constrained, and the valuation center of gravity faces further downward pressure.
For the crypto market, a high-rate environment limits the pace at which incremental fiat funds can enter. If another rate hike occurs as expected by year-end, the de-leveraging trend will continue; key risk assets such as $BTC may face the risk of episodic liquidity tightening and deeper pullbacks. Investors should be mindful of volatility caused by valuation repricing.📉
#Fed #InterestRates #MacroEconomy