Micron’s earnings report came out last night.
Revenue was $54.2 billion, up 379% year over year. EPS was $33.42, up 1,000% year over year. Gross margin was 87%.
Then Q1 guidance was $61.5 billion—8% higher than analysts expected.
It rose 0.4% after hours.
The first reaction I had to these numbers was: this report is so good there’s nothing left to say, and yet the market didn’t really move.
Because Micron is already up more than 500% this year—good news was already priced in.
The beat became “normal performance,” not something beyond the most optimistic scenarios, so there was no extra surprise.
That’s exactly what’s hardest to deal with during earnings season—the relationship between the numbers and the stock price depends on expectations, not absolute values.
Next week, the big banks roll out one after another: JPMorgan on October 13, then Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup.
The big banks’ earnings are the most direct temperature check for macro conditions this year—when the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields 5.33% and the Fed just hiked, the big banks’ net interest income and loan-loss provisions will tell us how much pressure the real economy is under.
On the AI line: Micron said data center revenue was up 11x year over year. The CEO even directly mentioned working with NVIDIA on developing the “industry’s first custom HBM.” This supply chain is still accelerating, with no signs of a peak.
But there’s one thing today that’s worth watching even more than earnings season:
Tomorrow, nonfarm payrolls data will come out. The odds of a rate hike in October are being repriced again, and the 5.33% 10-year yield is the backdrop sound for pricing across all assets today.
Earnings season begins—macro risk is still there.
Where are you positioned today?
$BTC
$NVDA
Revenue was $54.2 billion, up 379% year over year. EPS was $33.42, up 1,000% year over year. Gross margin was 87%.
Then Q1 guidance was $61.5 billion—8% higher than analysts expected.
It rose 0.4% after hours.
The first reaction I had to these numbers was: this report is so good there’s nothing left to say, and yet the market didn’t really move.
Because Micron is already up more than 500% this year—good news was already priced in.
The beat became “normal performance,” not something beyond the most optimistic scenarios, so there was no extra surprise.
That’s exactly what’s hardest to deal with during earnings season—the relationship between the numbers and the stock price depends on expectations, not absolute values.
Next week, the big banks roll out one after another: JPMorgan on October 13, then Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup.
The big banks’ earnings are the most direct temperature check for macro conditions this year—when the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields 5.33% and the Fed just hiked, the big banks’ net interest income and loan-loss provisions will tell us how much pressure the real economy is under.
On the AI line: Micron said data center revenue was up 11x year over year. The CEO even directly mentioned working with NVIDIA on developing the “industry’s first custom HBM.” This supply chain is still accelerating, with no signs of a peak.
But there’s one thing today that’s worth watching even more than earnings season:
Tomorrow, nonfarm payrolls data will come out. The odds of a rate hike in October are being repriced again, and the 5.33% 10-year yield is the backdrop sound for pricing across all assets today.
Earnings season begins—macro risk is still there.
Where are you positioned today?
$BTC
$NVDA
