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💥“The mini nonfarm” blows up! Has US employment bounced back again?
Latest ADP data: In September, the US added 90,000 jobs in the private sector, far above the market forecast of 68,000; August was revised down from 38,000 to 36,000. The first few months were sluggish, but September suddenly rebounded—ADP’s chief economist even said it was “strong” 😮
By industry, it’s not a one-off: Education & healthcare +55,000; leisure & hospitality +22,000; manufacturing +17,000; construction +15,000. Goods-producing industries +31,000 and the service sector +59,000. But finance (-16,000) and professional/business services (-11,000) still show some chill 🧊
By company size, mid-sized firms with 50–499 employees were the biggest driver, +54,000; small businesses +23,000; and large firms +14,000. By region, the Northeast +56,000—clearly holding up the banner.
Wages are steady too: base wages for those who stayed +3.0%, total wages +4.4%; base wages for job-changers +4.8%, total wages +7.3%. So, is switching jobs really the quickest route to higher pay? 💸
But don’t get too excited yet. ADP and nonfarm numbers use different definitions. The official nonfarm payrolls on Friday are the main event—market expects an increase of 84,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate at 4.1%. The Fed just raised rates by 25 bps in September; if nonfarm is strong again, the policy path will need to be re-assessed.
In short: US employment hasn’t lost speed, but it’s also not time for a party. See you Friday for the real test! What do you think the Fed will do next? 👇
#美国经济 #ADP #非农 #美联储
💥“The mini nonfarm” blows up! Has US employment bounced back again?
Latest ADP data: In September, the US added 90,000 jobs in the private sector, far above the market forecast of 68,000; August was revised down from 38,000 to 36,000. The first few months were sluggish, but September suddenly rebounded—ADP’s chief economist even said it was “strong” 😮
By industry, it’s not a one-off: Education & healthcare +55,000; leisure & hospitality +22,000; manufacturing +17,000; construction +15,000. Goods-producing industries +31,000 and the service sector +59,000. But finance (-16,000) and professional/business services (-11,000) still show some chill 🧊
By company size, mid-sized firms with 50–499 employees were the biggest driver, +54,000; small businesses +23,000; and large firms +14,000. By region, the Northeast +56,000—clearly holding up the banner.
Wages are steady too: base wages for those who stayed +3.0%, total wages +4.4%; base wages for job-changers +4.8%, total wages +7.3%. So, is switching jobs really the quickest route to higher pay? 💸
But don’t get too excited yet. ADP and nonfarm numbers use different definitions. The official nonfarm payrolls on Friday are the main event—market expects an increase of 84,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate at 4.1%. The Fed just raised rates by 25 bps in September; if nonfarm is strong again, the policy path will need to be re-assessed.
In short: US employment hasn’t lost speed, but it’s also not time for a party. See you Friday for the real test! What do you think the Fed will do next? 👇
#美国经济 #ADP #非农 #美联储
