On October 1, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield touched 5.33%—the highest level since 2002 and the first time seen in 24 years.\n\nIn early September, this figure was still 4.85%. In one month it jumped by about 48 basis points—one of the fastest single-month moves in this year’s bond market.\n\nBloomberg analysts pointed to the real driving force behind this rally:\n\nNot just inflation, but also bond supply.\n\nThe U.S. government’s total borrowing this year is at a record level. SoftBank’s $11 billion junk bond, Anthropic’s upcoming listing, and large-scale financing by AI infrastructure companies—huge amounts of new debt have flooded the market. Buyers require higher yields before they’re willing to hold it.\n\nMeanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield also rose in step to 5.65%—the highest since 2002.\n\nThis yield curve is telling the market that long-term rates are higher—and will be for longer.\n\nThe impact on BTC today is direct: \n\nThe $83,000–$84,000 range is the current support zone. A 10-year yield of 5.33% implies that the risk-free annualized return has reached a level that is very attractive for institutional capital—some funds may rotate from risky assets into bonds.\n\nBut there’s one thing worth noting: this year, as yields climbed from 4.5% to 5.33%, BTC rose from $64,000 to a peak of $87,000—suggesting that the AI narrative and institutional buying power can, to some extent, offset the interest-rate pressure.\n\nToday, the relationship between interest rates and BTC is no longer simply a negative correlation.\n\nNon-Farm Payrolls comes out tomorrow—this is what truly needs to be watched today.\n$BTC \n\n $QQQ \n#美国10年期美债收益率逼近5.3%