The latest data released by the U.S. Department of Labor for the week of September 26 shows that initial jobless claims came in at 197,000, significantly below the market expectation of 200,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims for the week of September 19 also fell to 1.701 million. The four-week moving average for continuing claims dropped back to 200,000, and overall labor market indicators demonstrate strong resilience.
This set of data highlights that the pace at which the U.S. job market is cooling is far slower than the market’s optimistic expectations. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve restarting its rate-hike cycle in mid-September, a tightening labor supply not only limits the space for policy adjustment, but may also further strengthen the resolve of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh to maintain a hawkish stance. The risk of a rebound in wage inflation cannot be ignored.
Strong employment performance has imposed a significant liquidity drag on macro financial markets. U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index received strong support after the data release. Market bets on rate cuts later this year continued to fade, and high-valued risk assets and non-yielding assets such as gold generally faced downward repricing pressures.
For the crypto market, the tightening of the macro liquidity environment directly suppresses off-exchange capital’s willingness to enter the market. If the high-rate environment persists longer than expected, risk assets headed by $BTC may face adjustment risks involving a downward shift in the valuation center of gravity. At the current stage, investors need to be alert to the fragility of leveraged positions.
#JoblessClaims #Fed #MacroEconomy
This set of data highlights that the pace at which the U.S. job market is cooling is far slower than the market’s optimistic expectations. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve restarting its rate-hike cycle in mid-September, a tightening labor supply not only limits the space for policy adjustment, but may also further strengthen the resolve of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh to maintain a hawkish stance. The risk of a rebound in wage inflation cannot be ignored.
Strong employment performance has imposed a significant liquidity drag on macro financial markets. U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index received strong support after the data release. Market bets on rate cuts later this year continued to fade, and high-valued risk assets and non-yielding assets such as gold generally faced downward repricing pressures.
For the crypto market, the tightening of the macro liquidity environment directly suppresses off-exchange capital’s willingness to enter the market. If the high-rate environment persists longer than expected, risk assets headed by $BTC may face adjustment risks involving a downward shift in the valuation center of gravity. At the current stage, investors need to be alert to the fragility of leveraged positions.
#JoblessClaims #Fed #MacroEconomy