SPX GEX: Oct 1 — Q4 opens on the boundary
September closed at -$21M after opening at -$142M. In between: the deepest negative since July (-$477M), the largest single-session rally this series has recorded (114 points, billion-dollar rebuild), an FOMC hike, triple witching, and a full thinning cycle. Thirty days of motion, structure finished roughly where it started.
The last leg took seven sessions: $1.33B, $468M, $447M, $895M, $168M, $98M, now -$21M. One bounce, six declines. Everything the post-witching rally built is gone.
Where price sits now is the problem. 7,650 is at -$95M and that's spot. 7,600 at -$98M. 7,500 at -$115M. Every level from 7,500 to 7,700 works against stability. First level that helps is 74 points up at 7,725.
Lighter than September's worst (which hit -$189M at a single strike). Same shape though: negative at price, support out of reach, regime line overhead at 7,714.
IV at 14.1%. Six of ten volume strikes were puts — mildly defensive, not crisis positioning.
The levels above never weakened. 7,800 at +$92M, 8,000 at +$139M. They didn't move. Price drifted away from them.
Q4 opens on the boundary.
Range today: 7,600 to 7,720.
September closed at -$21M after opening at -$142M. In between: the deepest negative since July (-$477M), the largest single-session rally this series has recorded (114 points, billion-dollar rebuild), an FOMC hike, triple witching, and a full thinning cycle. Thirty days of motion, structure finished roughly where it started.
The last leg took seven sessions: $1.33B, $468M, $447M, $895M, $168M, $98M, now -$21M. One bounce, six declines. Everything the post-witching rally built is gone.
Where price sits now is the problem. 7,650 is at -$95M and that's spot. 7,600 at -$98M. 7,500 at -$115M. Every level from 7,500 to 7,700 works against stability. First level that helps is 74 points up at 7,725.
Lighter than September's worst (which hit -$189M at a single strike). Same shape though: negative at price, support out of reach, regime line overhead at 7,714.
IV at 14.1%. Six of ten volume strikes were puts — mildly defensive, not crisis positioning.
The levels above never weakened. 7,800 at +$92M, 8,000 at +$139M. They didn't move. Price drifted away from them.
Q4 opens on the boundary.
Range today: 7,600 to 7,720.