#山寨季指数连续五日守稳60上方
Over the past quarter, Ethereum is up 71%, leaving Bitcoin’s 42.71% gain trailing by a full 28 percentage points 🦖
🔍 进群聊行情
With the third quarter now wrapped up, the results are in: Bitcoin is up 42.71%, marking the largest single-quarter gain since the fourth quarter of 2024 and the strongest third quarter since 2017; but the real protagonist has shifted to altcoins. In the same period, Ethereum is up about 71%, clearly outperforming.
The difference isn’t just in price. U.S. spot ETFs were very clear about where the money went in Q3: Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of about $6.34 billion, reversing roughly $5 billion of net outflows from Q2; Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of about $3.05 billion, while Q2 was still a net outflow of about $714 million. Altcoin share is also rising: XRP-related ETFs pulled in about $308 million in Q3, pushing cumulative net inflows to about $1.79 billion; in September alone, SOL and ZEC ETFs had net inflows of about $272 million and $246 million, respectively.
Lights are on on both the on-chain and index fronts 📈. The altcoin season index has held above 60 for five straight days; Glassnode’s “altcoin cycle signal” turned bullish last week. Bitcoin’s market-cap share has been stuck between 58% and 60.4% since May 27, failing to break above 60%. On September 27, altcoins outside the top ten already accounted for about 9% of the entire market—the highest since February of this year.
But don’t rush to shout “altcoin season is here” ⚠️. CryptoQuant’s weekly report provided a set of opposite signals: on September 28, the seven-day total number of altcoin deposit transactions jumped to 78,000—the highest since October last year, about 160% higher than September 14. The number of addresses participating in deposits rose from about 17,600 to about 51,600—nearly three times. Its wording is very blunt: “Holders moving coins to exchanges usually means they’re preparing to sell.”
This is the most real contradiction right now: prices are outperforming and capital is rotating out, yet a large amount of old coins are simultaneously being moved to exchanges.
My view: don’t take “the index standing above 60” as a clarion call for altcoin season. 60 is just a passing grade. A true altcoin season usually starts above 75. Right now it looks more like a rotation cycle than a full-blown celebration; and when deposits suddenly surge, it often happens in the latter half of the rotation, not at the beginning. What we really need to watch next is this: are the coins moved into exchanges being absorbed by spot buy orders, or are they immediately dumped into a big red candle—healthy turnover in the first case, and the same top-forming script replayed in the second. 💥
Chat in the comments: do you think this round of altcoin outperformance is a prelude to altcoin season, or just bait—“pumping” for someone?
Click the profile icon to watch the live stream
Every day, I’ll help you track crypto market highlights—more than just news; I’ll help you understand the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
Over the past quarter, Ethereum is up 71%, leaving Bitcoin’s 42.71% gain trailing by a full 28 percentage points 🦖
🔍 进群聊行情
With the third quarter now wrapped up, the results are in: Bitcoin is up 42.71%, marking the largest single-quarter gain since the fourth quarter of 2024 and the strongest third quarter since 2017; but the real protagonist has shifted to altcoins. In the same period, Ethereum is up about 71%, clearly outperforming.
The difference isn’t just in price. U.S. spot ETFs were very clear about where the money went in Q3: Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of about $6.34 billion, reversing roughly $5 billion of net outflows from Q2; Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of about $3.05 billion, while Q2 was still a net outflow of about $714 million. Altcoin share is also rising: XRP-related ETFs pulled in about $308 million in Q3, pushing cumulative net inflows to about $1.79 billion; in September alone, SOL and ZEC ETFs had net inflows of about $272 million and $246 million, respectively.
Lights are on on both the on-chain and index fronts 📈. The altcoin season index has held above 60 for five straight days; Glassnode’s “altcoin cycle signal” turned bullish last week. Bitcoin’s market-cap share has been stuck between 58% and 60.4% since May 27, failing to break above 60%. On September 27, altcoins outside the top ten already accounted for about 9% of the entire market—the highest since February of this year.
But don’t rush to shout “altcoin season is here” ⚠️. CryptoQuant’s weekly report provided a set of opposite signals: on September 28, the seven-day total number of altcoin deposit transactions jumped to 78,000—the highest since October last year, about 160% higher than September 14. The number of addresses participating in deposits rose from about 17,600 to about 51,600—nearly three times. Its wording is very blunt: “Holders moving coins to exchanges usually means they’re preparing to sell.”
This is the most real contradiction right now: prices are outperforming and capital is rotating out, yet a large amount of old coins are simultaneously being moved to exchanges.
My view: don’t take “the index standing above 60” as a clarion call for altcoin season. 60 is just a passing grade. A true altcoin season usually starts above 75. Right now it looks more like a rotation cycle than a full-blown celebration; and when deposits suddenly surge, it often happens in the latter half of the rotation, not at the beginning. What we really need to watch next is this: are the coins moved into exchanges being absorbed by spot buy orders, or are they immediately dumped into a big red candle—healthy turnover in the first case, and the same top-forming script replayed in the second. 💥
Chat in the comments: do you think this round of altcoin outperformance is a prelude to altcoin season, or just bait—“pumping” for someone?
Click the profile icon to watch the live stream
Every day, I’ll help you track crypto market highlights—more than just news; I’ll help you understand the logic and opportunities behind it 👀🚀
