#BTC Market Analysis 10/1
Last night’s PCE played out a textbook bull trap: core PCE came in below expectations, BTC surged to 85,633, and then gave back all of the gains.
The long setup of 81,500–82,100 given yesterday’s range didn’t trigger; the lowest only reached 82,901.
Now the price is around 83,750. The daily chart is still above EMA14 (82,800) and EMA21 (81,800), so the larger trend hasn’t turned bearish; however, on the 4-hour chart it has only barely reclaimed EMA21 (83,700), and the 1-hour EMA200 is still capping at 84,170.
1) Over the past 24 hours, OI increased by about 3.21%, yet the price barely moved; the funding rate is around 0.004%.
This indicates leveraged capital has returned in large amounts, but it hasn’t pushed price to break through. The move up last night was mainly short covering after the data release; spot follow-through is insufficient, and 84,200–85,600 remains a resistance zone.
2) Today’s trading plan
Do not open positions near 83,700.
Wait for a 1-hour strong bullish candle to hold above 84,200. If it pulls back to 83,900–84,100 without breaking, then go long. Stop loss: 82,900. Targets: 85,200 and 86,500. If it breaks out further, look for 87,300.
If the 4-hour chart closes back below 82,900, cancel the long plan.
Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, initial jobless claims will be released; at 22:00, ISM manufacturing data will be released. There is also non-farm payrolls tomorrow night—don’t use high leverage in the near term.
Quick summary: the bigger trend is still biased bullish, but don’t chase until `84200` is firmly held. Trade the long only after breakout confirmation; without confirmation, stay flat.
⚠️ Personal chart analysis only, not investment advice. Manage your position sizing carefully.
Last night’s PCE played out a textbook bull trap: core PCE came in below expectations, BTC surged to 85,633, and then gave back all of the gains.
The long setup of 81,500–82,100 given yesterday’s range didn’t trigger; the lowest only reached 82,901.
Now the price is around 83,750. The daily chart is still above EMA14 (82,800) and EMA21 (81,800), so the larger trend hasn’t turned bearish; however, on the 4-hour chart it has only barely reclaimed EMA21 (83,700), and the 1-hour EMA200 is still capping at 84,170.
1) Over the past 24 hours, OI increased by about 3.21%, yet the price barely moved; the funding rate is around 0.004%.
This indicates leveraged capital has returned in large amounts, but it hasn’t pushed price to break through. The move up last night was mainly short covering after the data release; spot follow-through is insufficient, and 84,200–85,600 remains a resistance zone.
2) Today’s trading plan
Do not open positions near 83,700.
Wait for a 1-hour strong bullish candle to hold above 84,200. If it pulls back to 83,900–84,100 without breaking, then go long. Stop loss: 82,900. Targets: 85,200 and 86,500. If it breaks out further, look for 87,300.
If the 4-hour chart closes back below 82,900, cancel the long plan.
Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, initial jobless claims will be released; at 22:00, ISM manufacturing data will be released. There is also non-farm payrolls tomorrow night—don’t use high leverage in the near term.
Quick summary: the bigger trend is still biased bullish, but don’t chase until `84200` is firmly held. Trade the long only after breakout confirmation; without confirmation, stay flat.
⚠️ Personal chart analysis only, not investment advice. Manage your position sizing carefully.
