🚨 PCE LOWER THAN FORECAST, BUT THE MARKET QUICKLY FLIPS
Last night, the entire market surged after US August PCE inflation came in below expectations.
The probability that the Fed will keep raising interest rates continued to fall from 49% → 38%.
However, part of this decline is due to the US changing how PCE is calculated across 3 service groups.
The new method may drag core PCE down by about 0.2 percentage points, while actual prices may not cool off as much as the data suggests.
Only about 30 minutes later, US bond yields jumped back up. Gold slipped to around USD 4,100, and both BTC and US stocks also returned to levels before the news was released.
BTC closed September up 6.4%, bringing the Q3/2026 gain to 42.7%.
Personal view:
PCE lower than the initial forecast is a positive signal, but the bond-yield reaction shows the market is still skeptical about how much inflation is truly cooling.
The change in calculation method also makes me think you shouldn’t rely solely on the PCE number to fully judge the inflation trend.
For BTC, upcoming US employment data will remain extremely important. If subsequent figures show inflation cooling while the labor market weakens, monetary policy expectations could shift significantly.
For now, everyone should watch Nonfarm at 19:30 on Friday and BTC’s reaction after the data is released.
👇 HOT COINS TRADING HERE 👇
$NIGHT
$STX
$PLUME
Last night, the entire market surged after US August PCE inflation came in below expectations.
The probability that the Fed will keep raising interest rates continued to fall from 49% → 38%.
However, part of this decline is due to the US changing how PCE is calculated across 3 service groups.
The new method may drag core PCE down by about 0.2 percentage points, while actual prices may not cool off as much as the data suggests.
Only about 30 minutes later, US bond yields jumped back up. Gold slipped to around USD 4,100, and both BTC and US stocks also returned to levels before the news was released.
BTC closed September up 6.4%, bringing the Q3/2026 gain to 42.7%.
Personal view:
PCE lower than the initial forecast is a positive signal, but the bond-yield reaction shows the market is still skeptical about how much inflation is truly cooling.
The change in calculation method also makes me think you shouldn’t rely solely on the PCE number to fully judge the inflation trend.
For BTC, upcoming US employment data will remain extremely important. If subsequent figures show inflation cooling while the labor market weakens, monetary policy expectations could shift significantly.
For now, everyone should watch Nonfarm at 19:30 on Friday and BTC’s reaction after the data is released.
👇 HOT COINS TRADING HERE 👇
$NIGHT
$STX
$PLUME
