Sometimes the weaker side can make the stronger side’s head hurt—not because the weaker side has already grown stronger, but because the stronger side hasn’t yet treated this matter as something that must be settled.
But! This kind of bargain has an expiration date!
While the other side is still keeping score, still measuring things carefully, and hasn’t decided to respond at the scale of a full-on major battle, you can buy yourself a bit of breathing room. But once you treat this “cheap advantage” as everyday fare and have it brought back to the table again and again, the other side will change the algorithm: no longer calling it harassment, but provocation.
When it gets to that point, your unconventional means stop being a lever and become an exposed trump card—on the table.
The trouble for Iran is right here: agents, missiles, and regional troublemakers. What was originally at most a tool for delay and pressure has been turned into capital for a long-term standoff with the United States. Take a little advantage and then add to the bet—read the other side’s restraint as your own weight. You overestimate how long you can hold out, and you underestimate how much the other side will change once they take it seriously.
Turning a one-time cheap deal into a long-term posture will, in the end, not be paid for by the mover—it will be paid for by the onlookers who got pulled into it.#IranUS
But! This kind of bargain has an expiration date!
While the other side is still keeping score, still measuring things carefully, and hasn’t decided to respond at the scale of a full-on major battle, you can buy yourself a bit of breathing room. But once you treat this “cheap advantage” as everyday fare and have it brought back to the table again and again, the other side will change the algorithm: no longer calling it harassment, but provocation.
When it gets to that point, your unconventional means stop being a lever and become an exposed trump card—on the table.
The trouble for Iran is right here: agents, missiles, and regional troublemakers. What was originally at most a tool for delay and pressure has been turned into capital for a long-term standoff with the United States. Take a little advantage and then add to the bet—read the other side’s restraint as your own weight. You overestimate how long you can hold out, and you underestimate how much the other side will change once they take it seriously.
Turning a one-time cheap deal into a long-term posture will, in the end, not be paid for by the mover—it will be paid for by the onlookers who got pulled into it.#IranUS