PCE cooling can’t break the long-end rates’ strong defense, BTC 84,000 yuan battle
The U.S. August PCE data came in: year-over-year growth of 3.4%, significantly below the market’s 3.7% forecast. Core PCE also weakened in tandem, which should have been a favorable moment for risk assets. However, the market didn’t celebrate as expected. After briefly spiking to $85,581, Bitcoin (BTC) quickly pulled back and resumed a tug-of-war within the $83,000–$84,000 range. This phenomenon reveals a deeper fracture in the current macro trading logic: cooling inflation data only improves expectations for short-end rates, but fails to move the long-end rate trajectory dominated by fiscal sustainability and geopolitical risk premia. While the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury fell by 4 basis points to 4.84%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose against the trend to around 5.3%, as long-term financing
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The U.S. August PCE data came in: year-over-year growth of 3.4%, significantly below the market’s 3.7% forecast. Core PCE also weakened in tandem, which should have been a favorable moment for risk assets. However, the market didn’t celebrate as expected. After briefly spiking to $85,581, Bitcoin (BTC) quickly pulled back and resumed a tug-of-war within the $83,000–$84,000 range. This phenomenon reveals a deeper fracture in the current macro trading logic: cooling inflation data only improves expectations for short-end rates, but fails to move the long-end rate trajectory dominated by fiscal sustainability and geopolitical risk premia. While the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury fell by 4 basis points to 4.84%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose against the trend to around 5.3%, as long-term financing
Follow me—my next post will be a quick look at the screen so you won’t miss it.