After the PCE was released, $BTC surged to about $85,400. But don’t overlook a line in the footnote about the claim that “inflation fell sharply from 3.7% to 3.4%.”
This time, the BEA adjusted the calculation method for some items and revised the data back to 2021. Overall PCE for July changed from 3.7% to 3.4%, and core PCE from 3.3% to 3.0%; in August, the year-over-year figures were still 3.4% and 3.0%, respectively. The real upside surprise is that the month-over-month rate for overall PCE came in at 0.3%, below the 0.4% expectation; core was 0.2%.
Consumer spending in the same period jumped 0.9%—demand hasn’t flatlined. The probability of a rate hike for October fell from about 45% to 35%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains above 5.2%, and BTC is back to around $84,500.
What the market gets is the rationale for “pausing rate hikes,” not the permission to “cut rates immediately.”
#BTC #PCE #美联储何时降息？
This time, the BEA adjusted the calculation method for some items and revised the data back to 2021. Overall PCE for July changed from 3.7% to 3.4%, and core PCE from 3.3% to 3.0%; in August, the year-over-year figures were still 3.4% and 3.0%, respectively. The real upside surprise is that the month-over-month rate for overall PCE came in at 0.3%, below the 0.4% expectation; core was 0.2%.
Consumer spending in the same period jumped 0.9%—demand hasn’t flatlined. The probability of a rate hike for October fell from about 45% to 35%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains above 5.2%, and BTC is back to around $84,500.
What the market gets is the rationale for “pausing rate hikes,” not the permission to “cut rates immediately.”
#BTC #PCE #美联储何时降息？
