Something very interesting is happening right now.


Bitcoin, after a strong rise, did not collapse.


But continuing the move higher to $85โ€“87K has not been possible yet either.


As a result, the market ended up between two camps:


๐ŸŸข some are waiting for the rally to continue;


๐Ÿ”ด others are opening shorts in anticipation of a correction.


And itโ€™s precisely these moments that often become the most dangerous for those who are too confident in their scenario.


๐ŸŸ  What speaks in favor of BTC?


ETF flows are still positive.


American spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $66 million in net inflows on September 29, extending the positive streak to nine trading days. In total, the previous inflow streak had already reached roughly $3.1 billion. (Altcoin Buzz)


So institutional demand hasnโ€™t disappeared.


Moreover, Bitcoin ends the quarter up more than 40% โ€” one of the strongest quarters in recent years. (The Wall Street Journal)


But thereโ€™s a problem.


The speed of capital inflows has dropped sharply.


And this canโ€™t be ignored anymore.


๐Ÿ”ต ETH shows an even more interesting picture


Ethereum is holding around $2.67K.


Before that, ETH had a seven-day streak of spot ETF inflows, bringing in about $850 million.


But on September 29, the series ended:


โˆ’$2.8M.


A small figure alone doesnโ€™t solve anything.


But after a strong inflow, this is a good sign that the market is starting to cool off a bit. (BeInCrypto)


โš ๏ธ And now the most interesting part


BTC is still significantly above the levels from which the September impulse began.


But at the same time:


โ€ข ETF flows are slowing

โ€ข spot demand is cooling

โ€ข traders are taking profit

โ€ข US bond yields remain high

โ€ข BTC canโ€™t confidently move above $85โ€“87K


At the same time, the decline still doesnโ€™t look convincing.


And thatโ€™s how you get the perfect setup for flushing both sides.


BTC might first move above local resistance โ†’ take out shorts โ†’ then reverse.


Or vice versa:


first, remove liquidity under local lows โ†’ knock out longs โ†’ bring the price back up.


So right now, Iโ€™d look much less at individual candles and much more at liquidity and the priceโ€™s reaction at key levels.


๐Ÿ“ My main monitoring scenario


$85โ€“87K is the zone where the market needs to show strength.


If BTC holds above it, the structure becomes significantly more interesting for continuation.


If, however, the market loses $82K, attention shifts to a deeper correction.


Itโ€™s the reaction to these zones that matters to me more than any pretty green candle.


๐ŸŸฃ What will happen with alts?


This is where the most interesting part begins.


If BTC continues rising relatively calmly, capital may gradually shift:


BTC โ†’ ETH โ†’ large alts โ†’ riskier alts.


But if BTC sharply drops, most alts will likely feel it much more intensely.


So right now, I wouldnโ€™t chase coins that already made +30โ€“50% in just a few days.


Itโ€™s much more interesting to look for assets that havenโ€™t yet gotten their wave, but still have liquidity, volume, and a fundamental track record.



The market doesnโ€™t look fully bullish or fully bearish right now.


It looks like a market where big players are trying to figure out who will make the first mistake.


And thatโ€™s why the nearest BTC move could be very sharp.


$87K or $82K โ€” where the real market test begins.


And what if the price first takes both levels?


Then itโ€™ll be especially interesting. ๐Ÿ‘€