When traders’ unrealized profits become so “fat they’re oozing,” it often means the market is most eager to “cash out.”
In its latest report dated September 29, CryptoQuant presented a contradictory picture: on one side, it confirmed that Bitcoin has once again reclaimed the 365-day moving average, with the Bull Score surging into the “extremely bullish” range at 90/100—indicating that a new bull-market structure is in place; on the other side, short-term traders’ on-paper profit rate has already climbed to 33%, the highest since about 21 months since December 2024. On September 22 alone, roughly 25,700 BTC were cashed out—this was the largest profit-taking day this year, totaling more than $2.1 billion based on the then-prevailing prices.
What’s even more worth watching is the “buyer taking the bag” side: over the past 30 days, cumulative spot demand for Bitcoin has contracted by about 170,000 coins. Meanwhile, speculative incremental demand in the futures market plummeted from about 164,000 BTC on September 14 to only 16,000 BTC by September 29. Altcoins are also moving to exchanges—transactions inflow over the past 7 days hit a near one-year high. Sellers are becoming more numerous, while buyers are fewer. After the U.S. August Core PCE release on September 30, BTC briefly rebounded to $84,452.4 and ETH returned to $2,720.76, but it still has some distance from the eight-month high near $87,400.
How to interpret it: the implication of this dataset is that while the bull market’s structure hasn’t broken, the “all the way up with your eyes closed” phase has likely come to an end. Historical experience suggests that when short-term profit-taking piles up to this level, as price moves higher, more people lock in gains—turning a one-way trend into a tug-of-war. The key to watch next isn’t whether price can tag new highs, but whether—each time there’s a pullback—there are real bids strong enough to catch it. $80,000 (the 365-day moving average) is the first line of defense. If it holds, you’ll likely see healthy consolidation; if it doesn’t, this pullback that started from $87,400 could be amplified. In the end, guessing the top at this stage is less useful than watching volume: whether spot demand and futures buying power are recovering matters more than any single candlestick pattern.
Data as of: 2026-09-30 15:30 UTC
Source: CryptoQuant report dated September 29 (compiled by Blockcast); Economic Daily News / Sina Finance
For information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC $ETH
I’ll keep following this kind of on-chain data. If there are changes in key levels, I’ll整理 them as soon as possible. Follow me so you don’t get lost～
In its latest report dated September 29, CryptoQuant presented a contradictory picture: on one side, it confirmed that Bitcoin has once again reclaimed the 365-day moving average, with the Bull Score surging into the “extremely bullish” range at 90/100—indicating that a new bull-market structure is in place; on the other side, short-term traders’ on-paper profit rate has already climbed to 33%, the highest since about 21 months since December 2024. On September 22 alone, roughly 25,700 BTC were cashed out—this was the largest profit-taking day this year, totaling more than $2.1 billion based on the then-prevailing prices.
What’s even more worth watching is the “buyer taking the bag” side: over the past 30 days, cumulative spot demand for Bitcoin has contracted by about 170,000 coins. Meanwhile, speculative incremental demand in the futures market plummeted from about 164,000 BTC on September 14 to only 16,000 BTC by September 29. Altcoins are also moving to exchanges—transactions inflow over the past 7 days hit a near one-year high. Sellers are becoming more numerous, while buyers are fewer. After the U.S. August Core PCE release on September 30, BTC briefly rebounded to $84,452.4 and ETH returned to $2,720.76, but it still has some distance from the eight-month high near $87,400.
How to interpret it: the implication of this dataset is that while the bull market’s structure hasn’t broken, the “all the way up with your eyes closed” phase has likely come to an end. Historical experience suggests that when short-term profit-taking piles up to this level, as price moves higher, more people lock in gains—turning a one-way trend into a tug-of-war. The key to watch next isn’t whether price can tag new highs, but whether—each time there’s a pullback—there are real bids strong enough to catch it. $80,000 (the 365-day moving average) is the first line of defense. If it holds, you’ll likely see healthy consolidation; if it doesn’t, this pullback that started from $87,400 could be amplified. In the end, guessing the top at this stage is less useful than watching volume: whether spot demand and futures buying power are recovering matters more than any single candlestick pattern.
Data as of: 2026-09-30 15:30 UTC
Source: CryptoQuant report dated September 29 (compiled by Blockcast); Economic Daily News / Sina Finance
For information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.
$BTC $ETH
I’ll keep following this kind of on-chain data. If there are changes in key levels, I’ll整理 them as soon as possible. Follow me so you don’t get lost～
