In the past two days, market expectations for another rate hike in October have clearly cooled.
Earlier, the rise in oil prices and the renewed increase in inflation pressure led the market to price the probability of a 25 bps hike in October at around 70%.
However, the latest comments from the New York Fed Chair Williams have been relatively dovish. He believes that the next rate hike does not necessarily need to happen immediately, and the probability of an October hike has fallen back to around 50%.
Tonight, there is also a more important data point: PCE.
The market currently expects August PCE to rise by 3.7% year over year, and core PCE to rise by 3.3% year over year.
If tonight’s data comes in below expectations, the pressure for further rate hikes in October will drop even further. That would be an important sentiment turning point for $BTC , U.S. stocks, and gold.
$XAUT $CL #PCE数据
Earlier, the rise in oil prices and the renewed increase in inflation pressure led the market to price the probability of a 25 bps hike in October at around 70%.
However, the latest comments from the New York Fed Chair Williams have been relatively dovish. He believes that the next rate hike does not necessarily need to happen immediately, and the probability of an October hike has fallen back to around 50%.
Tonight, there is also a more important data point: PCE.
The market currently expects August PCE to rise by 3.7% year over year, and core PCE to rise by 3.3% year over year.
If tonight’s data comes in below expectations, the pressure for further rate hikes in October will drop even further. That would be an important sentiment turning point for $BTC , U.S. stocks, and gold.
$XAUT $CL #PCE数据
