30.09.2026 09:00 (Kyiv time) #solana #FOMO
The previous base scenario of $117,5–119,6 was confirmed. From the evening $118,3–118,5, SOL recovered to $119,3, and the overnight high was approximately $119,8.
Support at $117,5–117,8 was not lost.
The negative scenario to $116,5 was not triggered.
The price briefly moved above $119,6, but there was no hourly consolidation above this level.
China’s PMI came in exactly in line with the forecast and didn’t trigger a sharp move.
So, SOL has stabilized, but it hasn’t yet confirmed a recovery of the uptrend.
Today’s main risk
At 15:30 Kyiv time, the following U.S. data will be released:
PCE and core PCE;
income and household spending;
final GDP for Q2. Publication time is confirmed by the official BEA calendar.
Expect around 3.3% for core PCE year over year and about 0.3% month over month.
PCE above forecast → possible break of $118.3 and a test of $117.5;
PCE below forecast → possible return to $120.5–121.0;
data vs forecast → likely continuation of the sideways range.
Scenarios for the next 12 hours
Core (45%):
Range $118.3–120.3.
Before the release of PCE, SOL may remain around $119–119.7.
After the release, a brief pierce of one of the boundaries is possible, followed by a return.
Condition: no hourly close below $118.3 or above $120.3.
Bearish (30%):
Break of $118.3 → $117.5–117.8 → $116.4–116.8.
The first warning will be a loss of $118.8–119.0.
Main confirmation — an hourly close below $118.3 with rising volume.
A close below $117.5 will open the way to the lower 4H Bollinger near $116.4. Below it, the next target will be approximately $115.5–116.0.
Bullish (25%):
Holding above $120.3–120.5 → $121.0 → $121.6–121.8.
To confirm, we need:
hourly close above MA99 and the 4H Bollinger midline;
1H RSI above 55;
positive MACD expansion;
increased volume. If SOL breaks yesterday’s high of $121.78, the next technical zone will be $123.0–123.8.
Key takeaway: the overnight forecast was confirmed—SOL held support and rebounded to the upper part of the base range. But $119.6–120.0 has not been cleared yet, and the 4H timeframe remains neutral-to-bearish. Before 15:30, the most likely outcome is a sideways move; after PCE, the key levels will be $118.3 on the downside and $120.5 on the upside.
This is a subjective interpretation of the charts and is not investment advice to buy or sell.