US Treasury yields and Bitcoin have produced a surprisingly counterintuitive conclusion.
The 10-year US Treasury yield has already risen to 5.23%, the highest level since 2007. Markus Thielen of 10x Research has even called for a move toward 6% in the coming months. That sounds like bad news for risk assets, but his logic is a bit interesting: the key isn’t how high yields rise, but why they rise.
If the rise is driven by Federal Reserve tightening (the 2022 playbook), then Bitcoin would indeed face pressure. But if the market is concerned about deficits and debt and demands higher term compensation, that would be tantamount to casting a vote of no confidence in US fiscal credibility. In that case, Bitcoin and other alternative assets could actually benefit. Since the end of 2023, yields have risen by 135 basis points, while Bitcoin over the same period is close to doubling—data that also reasonably supports this view.
Data as of: 2026-09-29 13:00 UTC
Source: CoinDesk (Sep 29, cited by 10x Research); Sina Finance Hot News Hour (Sep 29, cited by Wall Street Insights)
For information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.
#比特币 #US Treasury
The 10-year US Treasury yield has already risen to 5.23%, the highest level since 2007. Markus Thielen of 10x Research has even called for a move toward 6% in the coming months. That sounds like bad news for risk assets, but his logic is a bit interesting: the key isn’t how high yields rise, but why they rise.
If the rise is driven by Federal Reserve tightening (the 2022 playbook), then Bitcoin would indeed face pressure. But if the market is concerned about deficits and debt and demands higher term compensation, that would be tantamount to casting a vote of no confidence in US fiscal credibility. In that case, Bitcoin and other alternative assets could actually benefit. Since the end of 2023, yields have risen by 135 basis points, while Bitcoin over the same period is close to doubling—data that also reasonably supports this view.
Data as of: 2026-09-29 13:00 UTC
Source: CoinDesk (Sep 29, cited by 10x Research); Sina Finance Hot News Hour (Sep 29, cited by Wall Street Insights)
For information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.
#比特币 #US Treasury
