$SPY closed at $763.73, down 0.25%. Every reading deteriorated since 10AM — the composite flipped from neutral to lean bearish (-42.7), the first bearish tilt since the September 16 rate hike. The options surface hit -$1.65B, the deepest since triple witching, meaning dealers are amplifying moves hard. Mechanical selling emerged: put flow outpaced calls almost 2:1.
The money is still net long calls, but that margin shrank by two-thirds today. Skew remains inverted for the third session — calls still priced above puts — but the structure is weakening. Price is sitting just above the largest cliff on the board.
$760 is the line. Below it, $755 is next with a -$177M hole. Support turns positive at $769. The ceiling is $774, the record $779.30.
The cold PPI signal (day 13 of 20) is falling behind: $SPY +0.78% from the September 10 close versus the +1.22% average.
The structure worsened, the call lean thinned. If the overnight doesn't repair it, $760 gets tested.
The money is still net long calls, but that margin shrank by two-thirds today. Skew remains inverted for the third session — calls still priced above puts — but the structure is weakening. Price is sitting just above the largest cliff on the board.
$760 is the line. Below it, $755 is next with a -$177M hole. Support turns positive at $769. The ceiling is $774, the record $779.30.
The cold PPI signal (day 13 of 20) is falling behind: $SPY +0.78% from the September 10 close versus the +1.22% average.
The structure worsened, the call lean thinned. If the overnight doesn't repair it, $760 gets tested.
