Last night U.S. stocks fell and yields surged—yet despite that, $82,000 still didn’t break!
Under normal price action, $BTC should have continued to test $80,000, but the price bottomed out around $82.6k, then reclaimed $84k.
This indicates there’s indeed buy support between $82k and $83k, and the earlier upward structure hasn’t been broken.
The 4-hour KDJ has formed a new golden cross again; RSI(6) rebounded to around 65. MACD’s bearish momentum is close to exhaustion, and open interest also fell from about 96.2k coins to 93.2k coins. This suggests the rebound happened after a leveraged liquidation wave—not simply propped up by contract stacking.
However, resilience doesn’t equal reversal.
$83k is this week’s line in the sand. If it holds, we continue testing $84.5k–$85.5k. Only if price stands firm at $85.5k with volume can it have a chance to challenge $87k–$87.4k again.
If it drops back below $83k or fails and breaks $82k, then this rally can only be considered a rebound after oversold conditions; afterward, we’d still need to test $80k.
ETFs have been seeing consecutive net inflows, and the buy-side is still there, but the driving momentum is weakening. Institutions have shifted from actively抢筹 to taking over at lower levels.
My view is: this week will most likely first repair, then choose direction. The key range to watch is $82k–$85.5k, and PCE, ISM, and Non-Farm Payrolls will determine which way the final breakout goes.
For short-term plays, just look at relative strength. If ETH holds above $2,700, the catch-up upside is better than most altcoins. SOL is better suited to follow after BTC breaks. HYPE is currently weak—until BTC takes out $85.5k, the “excitement” in altcoins looks more like rotation, not a full-blown major leg up.
Under normal price action, $BTC should have continued to test $80,000, but the price bottomed out around $82.6k, then reclaimed $84k.
This indicates there’s indeed buy support between $82k and $83k, and the earlier upward structure hasn’t been broken.
The 4-hour KDJ has formed a new golden cross again; RSI(6) rebounded to around 65. MACD’s bearish momentum is close to exhaustion, and open interest also fell from about 96.2k coins to 93.2k coins. This suggests the rebound happened after a leveraged liquidation wave—not simply propped up by contract stacking.
However, resilience doesn’t equal reversal.
$83k is this week’s line in the sand. If it holds, we continue testing $84.5k–$85.5k. Only if price stands firm at $85.5k with volume can it have a chance to challenge $87k–$87.4k again.
If it drops back below $83k or fails and breaks $82k, then this rally can only be considered a rebound after oversold conditions; afterward, we’d still need to test $80k.
ETFs have been seeing consecutive net inflows, and the buy-side is still there, but the driving momentum is weakening. Institutions have shifted from actively抢筹 to taking over at lower levels.
My view is: this week will most likely first repair, then choose direction. The key range to watch is $82k–$85.5k, and PCE, ISM, and Non-Farm Payrolls will determine which way the final breakout goes.
For short-term plays, just look at relative strength. If ETH holds above $2,700, the catch-up upside is better than most altcoins. SOL is better suited to follow after BTC breaks. HYPE is currently weak—until BTC takes out $85.5k, the “excitement” in altcoins looks more like rotation, not a full-blown major leg up.