End-of-month one knife: Ethena is rewarding USDe growth-linked coins—but the issuance stops after this month ends. Meanwhile, the buyback won’t start until supply returns to $7.5 billion. Right now, the float is still around $4.9 billion.
Numbers: Using Ethena’s September 26 기준, the incentives have already been cut by about 85% versus the first round of 2024 token airdrops. They go to zero after the end of the month; historically, the total rewards issued add up to over $750 million. DefiLlama shows USDe locked at roughly $4.91 billion. The peak last October was around $15 billion, then it shrank by more than 60%. The buyback proposal says supply needs to exceed $7.5 billion, and then 95% of net revenue will be used to buy tokens—still about $2.6 billion short of the threshold. There’s also a remaining locked investment tranche that will be released all at once on October 5 (the project hasn’t officially announced the exact figure; third parties estimate it’s on the order of ~1.4 billion tokens). Don’t tie this release to the buyback as if they “offset each other.”
Market: The weekly high probed around 0.295; it’s about 0.253 now, down roughly 14%. Over the past 24 hours, it’s softened about 5%, and the low hit around 0.247.
My take: Don’t hear “incentives are ending” as “all bad news is done and you can buy immediately.” What stops is the token issuance subsidy; the buyback door hasn’t opened yet. Also, there’s the October 5 unlock window in between.
How I’d move: Around 0.253, I wouldn’t chase a rebound. I’d keep it light and watch to see if 0.245–0.250 (around today’s low) can hold. If there’s a bounce back to 0.270–0.275, I’d lean toward reducing or staying on the sidelines. If it breaks below 0.240, I’d put this move aside for now. Keep position sizing light rather than heavy, and don’t rush the unlock window before October 5.
$ENA
Numbers: Using Ethena’s September 26 기준, the incentives have already been cut by about 85% versus the first round of 2024 token airdrops. They go to zero after the end of the month; historically, the total rewards issued add up to over $750 million. DefiLlama shows USDe locked at roughly $4.91 billion. The peak last October was around $15 billion, then it shrank by more than 60%. The buyback proposal says supply needs to exceed $7.5 billion, and then 95% of net revenue will be used to buy tokens—still about $2.6 billion short of the threshold. There’s also a remaining locked investment tranche that will be released all at once on October 5 (the project hasn’t officially announced the exact figure; third parties estimate it’s on the order of ~1.4 billion tokens). Don’t tie this release to the buyback as if they “offset each other.”
Market: The weekly high probed around 0.295; it’s about 0.253 now, down roughly 14%. Over the past 24 hours, it’s softened about 5%, and the low hit around 0.247.
My take: Don’t hear “incentives are ending” as “all bad news is done and you can buy immediately.” What stops is the token issuance subsidy; the buyback door hasn’t opened yet. Also, there’s the October 5 unlock window in between.
How I’d move: Around 0.253, I wouldn’t chase a rebound. I’d keep it light and watch to see if 0.245–0.250 (around today’s low) can hold. If there’s a bounce back to 0.270–0.275, I’d lean toward reducing or staying on the sidelines. If it breaks below 0.240, I’d put this move aside for now. Keep position sizing light rather than heavy, and don’t rush the unlock window before October 5.
$ENA
