🚨 U.S.–IRAN TALKS THROUGH MEDIATORS, HORMUZ STILL THE KEY BOTTLENECK
The backchannel channels are continuing to push negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in an effort to end the fighting and restore operations through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is reportedly waiting for a response from the U.S. to a new proposal.
Under Tehran’s proposal, Iran wants the U.S. to lift port blockades, ease oil-related sanctions, and release part of the frozen assets. In return, Iran would reopen Hormuz and resume talks on the nuclear issue.
Even so, there are still significant differences between the two sides regarding conditions and the sequence of concessions. Washington also requires concrete progress related to Iran’s nuclear program.
On oil, Middle East crude exports in September have rebounded to nearly 80% of pre-war levels. However, oil flows through Hormuz remain significantly lower than before the conflict.
Personal view:
The most important point right now isn’t only whether the U.S. and Iran are negotiating, but whether the mediated exchanges can be turned into a practical, real-world agreement.
If Hormuz is reopened stably, supply risks could drop substantially and the market would gain an additional factor to cool off.
Conversely, if negotiations continue to stall, oil prices and the geopolitical risk premium may remain high, continuing to pressure inflation, Treasury yields, and risk assets such as stocks and crypto.
For now, I will closely track 3 variables: Hormuz, Brent prices, and Treasury yields. These could be key factors for gauging market sentiment in the near term.
👇 HOT COINS TRADING HERE 👇
$QNT
$SEI
$PUMP
The backchannel channels are continuing to push negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in an effort to end the fighting and restore operations through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is reportedly waiting for a response from the U.S. to a new proposal.
Under Tehran’s proposal, Iran wants the U.S. to lift port blockades, ease oil-related sanctions, and release part of the frozen assets. In return, Iran would reopen Hormuz and resume talks on the nuclear issue.
Even so, there are still significant differences between the two sides regarding conditions and the sequence of concessions. Washington also requires concrete progress related to Iran’s nuclear program.
On oil, Middle East crude exports in September have rebounded to nearly 80% of pre-war levels. However, oil flows through Hormuz remain significantly lower than before the conflict.
Personal view:
The most important point right now isn’t only whether the U.S. and Iran are negotiating, but whether the mediated exchanges can be turned into a practical, real-world agreement.
If Hormuz is reopened stably, supply risks could drop substantially and the market would gain an additional factor to cool off.
Conversely, if negotiations continue to stall, oil prices and the geopolitical risk premium may remain high, continuing to pressure inflation, Treasury yields, and risk assets such as stocks and crypto.
For now, I will closely track 3 variables: Hormuz, Brent prices, and Treasury yields. These could be key factors for gauging market sentiment in the near term.
👇 HOT COINS TRADING HERE 👇
$QNT
$SEI
$PUMP