Crypto Markets: $BTC’s long-term logic is still in a deeply oversold rebound cycle. There’s still room to trade in the short term, but the long-term major correction cycle isn’t there yet. So the final segment of the correction after the oversold rebound hasn’t played out. If there isn’t a big catalyst—like continued consecutive rate hikes and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve getting used up—then basically, once the oversold rebound is completed, it will start the official correction phase. Finish the last leg of the correction.
US stocks: The Nasdaq’s double-top has basically been formed. The other two indexes have already adjusted earlier. On the board, it’s more rotation rather than focusing on the AI sector. There’s rotation in healthcare, consumer, and energy. This indicates that money is starting to switch.
For example: Among the popular AI hardware stocks, the “military commander” $NVDAB $SNDKB also haven’t managed to complete a breakout to new highs.
So now funds are diverting into software and other themes in small-cap market values. That’s basically the tide going out.
The odds for long-term positions are already not great. For the short-term rebound, if it turns into an “M-top,” then it should dispel the idea of a rebound continuation. Also, rebounds are suitable for establishing short positions.
Next: gold and crude oil.
From a macro perspective: Gold is a non-yielding asset. With rising U.S. Treasury yields and expectations for further rate hikes, that becomes a pressure on it—but that pressure is short-term. Right now the dollar system needs to re-bind to an anchor asset. That would be commodities and precious metals—gold, mining, and energy.
So the true long cycle for commodities hasn’t arrived yet. How long will the short-term correction grind on? Only when the U.S. is fully in control of oil pricing power—around then—it should be close to starting.
#黄金跌至4144美元
US stocks: The Nasdaq’s double-top has basically been formed. The other two indexes have already adjusted earlier. On the board, it’s more rotation rather than focusing on the AI sector. There’s rotation in healthcare, consumer, and energy. This indicates that money is starting to switch.
For example: Among the popular AI hardware stocks, the “military commander” $NVDAB $SNDKB also haven’t managed to complete a breakout to new highs.
So now funds are diverting into software and other themes in small-cap market values. That’s basically the tide going out.
The odds for long-term positions are already not great. For the short-term rebound, if it turns into an “M-top,” then it should dispel the idea of a rebound continuation. Also, rebounds are suitable for establishing short positions.
Next: gold and crude oil.
From a macro perspective: Gold is a non-yielding asset. With rising U.S. Treasury yields and expectations for further rate hikes, that becomes a pressure on it—but that pressure is short-term. Right now the dollar system needs to re-bind to an anchor asset. That would be commodities and precious metals—gold, mining, and energy.
So the true long cycle for commodities hasn’t arrived yet. How long will the short-term correction grind on? Only when the U.S. is fully in control of oil pricing power—around then—it should be close to starting.
#黄金跌至4144美元