According to the latest monitoring data from the CME, the market currently expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming October policy meeting with a probability of 70.9%, while the probability of keeping rates within the 3.75%-4.00% range has fallen to just 29.1%. At the same time, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis points of rate hikes by December has also reached 58.7%, indicating that market expectations for the tightening cycle are being recalibrated.
This shift in the data is highly significant. It reflects that the market’s earlier expectations that the rate-hiking cycle would end are being tested again. Previously, many investors speculated that monetary policy might gradually pivot. However, the latest probability distribution shows that traders are positioning themselves for a longer period of high interest rates, and macroeconomic games have entered a new phase.
From the perspective of traditional financial markets, rising rate-hike expectations typically provide direct support for the U.S. dollar index and higher U.S. Treasury yields. In this environment, non-yielding assets such as gold and valuations of global risk assets are often put under pressure, and overall market liquidity and risk appetite may contract in phases.
For the crypto market, this could mean that $BTC and major cryptocurrencies will continue to face tests of tighter macro liquidity. Investors’ sentiment is currently largely cautious and on standby; in the near term, liquidity may remain characterized by a range-bound tug-of-war, and the outlook still needs to be closely monitored and validated by subsequent key economic data.
#Fed #InterestRates #CryptoMarket
This shift in the data is highly significant. It reflects that the market’s earlier expectations that the rate-hiking cycle would end are being tested again. Previously, many investors speculated that monetary policy might gradually pivot. However, the latest probability distribution shows that traders are positioning themselves for a longer period of high interest rates, and macroeconomic games have entered a new phase.
From the perspective of traditional financial markets, rising rate-hike expectations typically provide direct support for the U.S. dollar index and higher U.S. Treasury yields. In this environment, non-yielding assets such as gold and valuations of global risk assets are often put under pressure, and overall market liquidity and risk appetite may contract in phases.
For the crypto market, this could mean that $BTC and major cryptocurrencies will continue to face tests of tighter macro liquidity. Investors’ sentiment is currently largely cautious and on standby; in the near term, liquidity may remain characterized by a range-bound tug-of-war, and the outlook still needs to be closely monitored and validated by subsequent key economic data.
#Fed #InterestRates #CryptoMarket