Fuel prices could become that very last straw that could derail the political careers of current European leaders. In the European gas market, record figures have been set: new highs have been registered in Germany, France, Poland, and Denmark. As for diesel fuel, price records have been broken in Germany, France, Italy, and Latvia.

Rising gas prices along with high fuel costs are creating additional pressure on the governments of European countries while also boosting the popularity of opposition forces. The most notable political risks are in Germany—advances by the AfD party are putting serious pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Similar processes are being seen in France, the UK, and several other countries.

European gas storage is only 69% full versus the usual 85% norm. The cost of gas has reached €81 per megawatt-hour—150% higher than last year’s level. Morgan Stanley warns that, depending on weather conditions, the price could rise to €100.

For businesses and households, loans are becoming more expensive. The situation that is developing is pushing the ECB to consider the possibility of raising interest rates. ECB representative Peter Kazimir said: “Right now, my focus is not so much on oil and fuel prices as on gas and electricity prices.”